Brady has not won any Super Bowls

Word out of Cleveland is that Brady Quinn wants a contract befitting a top 10 pick, although he wasn't chosen until the 22nd spot in the draft. Cleveland swapped a 2007 2nd rounder and a 2008 1st rounder with Dallas to get the native Ohioan, who expressed consistently throughout the draft process that he'd love to play for Cleveland-- a pretty stunning proclamation for an NFL rookie to make (you know, since he'll have to compete with Grady Sizemore for the hearts of Cleveland bachelorettes).

I'm not going to go into the details of the litany of rookies who hold out, miss training camp, and never really catch up, thus damaging their careers irreparably. (Here's an excellent analysis by Gregg Easterbrook. I instead want to break down this logic of Brady's. According to conventional GM wisdom, draft picks are devalued by one round per year. In other words, a 2007 2nd round pick is worth a 2008 1st round pick. Cleveland thus traded the equivalent of two 2007 2nd round picks (admittedly both likely high in the 2nd round) for Quinn. Two 2nd round picks does not equal a top 10 pick, Brady.

This is where Mel Kiper wields his influence. He and his impersonators talk for months about how Quinn is a top 5 pick, when such a value is completely artificial. He didn't drop to 22nd, he was drafted 22nd. He didn't have anywhere to drop from, but since the whole world heard for months that Quinn could go 3rd, he's got a contract demand in mind. That's called anchoring, for you negotiation nerds, and it doesn't make sense in this case.

posted by Jimmy Chitwood @ 22:28,


At July 31, 2007 at 10:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jimmy, you sound like you know something about Cleveland girls and what they like! But why isn't Lebron on your list of "hotties"?

At August 1, 2007 at 10:27 PM, Blogger Jimmy Chitwood said...

Lebron has been cranking out babies, so while clearly he appeals to some, I'm thinking he's not in the Grady/Brady class.

At August 2, 2007 at 12:20 PM, Blogger Crucifictorious said...

LeBron should get some points for being the hottest LBJ of all time, though.

I buy that Brady's unfairly "anchoring" his trade value, but might quibble over the two (high) second rounders not being worth a top 10 pick. Didn't the Texans just trade two 2nd rounders (2007 and 2008--or in your terms, a 2nd and 3rd round pick this year) for Matt Schaub? Given the short playing careers, getting fresh (and reasonably cheap) talent has always been a major asset in the NFL, much more than free agency.

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