Bench those nasty thoughts
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Fellow basket-blogger PhDribble has tasked us and others with a bold mission: Do away with "the cult of the starter." Foster conversation about whether stars should come off the bench, or remove any stigma when writing about reserves. Perhaps this will spark a revolution, or at least a TrueHoop link.
We like PhDribble quite a bit--even if Doctor Dribbles is this close to sending a cease-and-desist--and we like going against the conventional wisdom, too. But this is kind of crazy, right? An NBA where coaches ask max-contract stars to give up starting spots? Which cuts the distinctions between starters and reserves? Perhaps we're mere cultists, but the idea struck us as sheer lunacy.
Naturally, we considered it.
Teams have won with this strategy. Ballhype's Jason Gurney points out the Spurs' success with Manu Ginobili; we remembered how the raw Ervin Johnson started and the aging Sam Perkins closed for the great mid-90s Sonics. Teams have lost by ignoring the strategy, too. PhDribble notes how Detroit--with an established core of veterans in 2003--erred by drafting Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, largely to avoid the roster controversy of Melo pushing Tayshaun Prince for a starting spot.
Interestingly, PhDribble contends that some stars don't co-exist well; for example, the Rockets might be better if Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady played as little of the game together as possible. To some extent, that suggestion "feels" right--simply, Yao is slow, T-Mac is fast, and the Rockets could tweak their on-court quintet to maximize each star's skills. Plus, some stats and performance seem to bear the idea out. Houston won ten games in a row even without Yao, as McGrady boosted his scoring average; according to 82games.com, the pair have a lower winning percentage and adjusted +/- this year when playing together than playing apart.
In fact, unlike Deron Williams/Carlos Boozer, or Pau Gasol/Kobe Bryant, Yao/McGrady might be the most incompatible pair of stars in the NBA...which is why we think PhDribble's argument falters. Let's explain.
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Performance
Looking at the bigger picture, most good NBA coaches can structure a system to feature multiple stars' strengths, such as Mike D'Antoni incorporating Shaq into the Suns or Don Nelson maximizing the Warriors' run n' gun. For their part, unless a player needs the ball in his hands--like an aging and one-legged Chris Webber--the greats can learn to complement one another, like the Celtics' or Wizards' trios. And even if Yao and T-Mac are particularly ill-matched, they still make for a more formidable combo together than apart.
First, the Rockets' +/- stats this year are thrown off by their massive winning streak with Yao injured. Looking back on similar figures from 2006 and 2007, the team clearly was better with both stars on the floor. Plus, Yao and McGrady were each more productive players this year when playing together; without Yao drawing the double team, T-Mac's FG% and 3P% measurably fell even as his shot attempts jumped up, while Yao's own performance slid and his turnovers went up 30% per game as he tried to do more without T-Mac.
PhDribble also proposes Melo and AI as another mismatched set of stars. Again, the +/- this year backs that up, a bit...but it was just the opposite last year. Given that the +/- data isn't conclusive, we'd contend it's the lack of talent around the stars that's kept Denver from clinching a playoff berth.
Frankly, most stars play better when they've got superior players surrounding them, creating more opportunities and allowing the star to do more within a role. Although Manu's devastating off the bench, even he's more productive as a starter than as a sub.
Pecking order
As goathair pointed out, bloggers can try and change perceptions, but there will always be five starters; with starting spots come minutes, as a coach wants his five best players on the floor in hopes of establishing an early lead--he's not looking to inject energy at the five-minute mark unless the team needs it.
And as we'd argued, this hierarchy is key; it incents reserves to fight for more minutes, not accept their place off the bench. Acknowledging such hierarchies, PhDribble wonders if having a pecking order is "necessary or a crutch?"--but we think even talent-laden teams need a rotation.
For example, the 1995-1996 Kentucky Wildcats were an unbelievably loaded college basketball team; the NCAA champs featured eight future NBA players (five starters, three reserves), even after coach Rick Pitino red-shirted one player (future 2nd round draft pick Jared Prickett) and ran off another (future NBA swingman Rodrick Rhodes) to further avoid team infighting. If there was ever a team that could blur the distinctions between starters and reserves, it was this one. And sure--ten guys ended up playing regular minutes, but only five players started 24 or more games, as even Pitino needed to establish a consistent rotation for game-planning purposes.
Perks
Having attended last night's Wizards victory, we were reminded yet again--it may not be the United Center circa MJ, but there's nothing like a crowd of thousands chanting your name during introductions.
There's so little stigma associated with being a reserve in the NBA, when you think about it; the average bench player somehow deals with a multiple million-dollar contract, a huge per diem, fancy hotels, and indiscriminate groupies. It's a comfortable life for many players who never scratched their full potential...really, there should be more incentives for starting positions, not fewer.
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We do agree on one point, though: There's considerably more greatness coming off the bench than just Manu or Leandro Barbosa. So we'll do our part to help celebrate it.
As some folks know, we're hosting the final edition of this year's blogger NBA awards...and thinking of ways to better recognize the reserves, we've come up with the new "Seventh Man" award, which is exactly how it sounds.
It probably won't make TJ Ford feel better about losing his spot to Jose Calderon, or get John Salmons to stop sulking.
But when de-programming cultists like us...it's a start.
Labels: Bench, Ginobili, NBA, PhDribble, sports blogs are on fire
posted by Crucifictorious @ 22:10,
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