Rankings: The 7th Man of the year (oh, and MVP, too)
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Let's face it: Part I of the final basket-blogger awards played to script, with Durant (ROY), Scott (COY), and Hedo (MIP). However, today's rankings of 7th Man and MVP promise to be more surprising and--dare we say--interesting.
Still, prepare yourself for lots of charts and numbers; bloggers provided six months of data, after all. How could we not analyze it?
7th Man of the Year
We elected to skip 6th Man--not just because Manu Ginobili was near-unanimous, but since typical candidates are de facto starters--and instead wanted to recognize a true impact reserve. A player who doesn't get starter's minutes (so, no one who played more than 24 mpg) and came off the bench all season (so, no one who started more than 25% of the games he played in).
Here's how basket-bloggers voted:
Honorable mention: Jordan Farmar, Leon Powe, Jannero Pargo.
3. Louis Williams
11.5 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 16.7 PER
Per 36 minutes: 17.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.6 spg
Adjusted plus-minus: -7.68
12 points, named on 15% of ballots
Perfect third guard, although we'll probably end up overpaying him--and starting him.--Phunctional Phalcoholic, We Rite Goode
2. JR Smith
12.3 ppg, 1.7 apg, 40% 3FG, 18.1 PER
Per 36 minutes: 23.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.2 apg
Adjusted plus-minus: -1.99
22 points, 35% of ballots
The Nuggets are in the lottery without his scoring, and yes, passing, off the bench.--Jeremy, Pickaxe and Roll.
INAUGURAL 7TH MAN - Jason Maxiell
7.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 54% FG, 21.6 mpg, 16.7 PER
Per 36 minutes: 13.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.9 bpg
Adjusted plus-minus: 4.34
29 points, 46% of ballot
He anchors a very good bench for a team that is, in my view, the 2nd best team in the NBA.--John, Red's Army
He eats babies.--Pradamaster, Bullets Forever
Editorializing for a second, our friend PhDribble wants bloggers to better recognize bench players; he'd be happy to know that 23 different 7th men were nominated, with 11 receiving at least one first-place vote. Not surprisingly, the polling strongly favored reserves on playoff teams, which tend to be deeper and bring more talent off the pine.
Another aside: Had this award been based solely on adjusted plus-minus--basically, how much better was a team with X player on the court--Eduardo Najera (plus 9.25) would have won 7th man in a landslide, as he was among the league leaders. Second and third among 7th men were Tony Allen (plus 5.08) and Kyle Korver (plus 4.80), respectively.
Most Valuable Player
Whether it was wins, points, or lifetime achievement, most basket-bloggers based their MVP choice on established criteria. Then there were the voters who felt that charisma in street clothes (one 9th place vote for Greg Oden) or simply leaving the team (one 10th place vote for Jeff McInnes) were enough to warrant consideration.
You'll see the results below, but one trend we've identified, which is sure to help some runner-up's candidacy next year: Keep your bad haircut. After shaving their heads, Andrew Bogut and Chris Kaman finished tied for just 23rd.
Honorable mention: Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Tracy McGrady
10. Manu Ginobili
19.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.5 apg, 61.2% TS, PER 24.3
32 win shares, 10.65 adjusted plus-minus
62 points, 50% of ballots
As he goes, so go the Spurs. No disrespect to Timmy, but it's the truth.--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
9. Deron Williams
18.8 ppg, 10.5 apg, 59.5% FG, 20.8 PER
31 win shares, 2.06 adjusted plus-minus
66 points, 50% of ballots
Even though as a Nugget fan I hate the Jazz, Deron is just too good to put any lower.--Jeremy, Pickaxe and Roll
8. Dirk Nowitzki
23.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 58.5% TS, 24.6 PER
34 win shares, 8.16 adjusted plus-minus
67 points, 57% of ballots
In many ways Dirk has been much more of an MVP candidate to me this year than last. He's shown unexpected toughness and resiliency and was the reason Dallas topped the 50 win mark once again.--Franchise, RaptorsHQ
7. Amare Stoudemire
25.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 65.6% TS, 27.6 PER
43 win shares, -1.47 adjusted plus-minus
99 points, 67% of ballots
Some questioned his passion and work-ethic in the beginning of the season...Those people have been very quiet.--Ryne, Odenized
6. Tim Duncan
19.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.9 bpg, 24.3 PER
32 win shares, 7.52 adjusted plus-minus
104 points, 72% of ballots
Didn't everyone think he was washed up like 3 years ago?--College Wolf, Twolves Blog
Top five in MVP voting
Let's pause for a second. Not for dramatic emphasis, but to consider how these final five players separated themselves across the season; none dropped below fifth in our rankings, and four--LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Chris Paul--held the top spot at some point.
However, every player who once held first also ranked as low as fourth or fifth at some point, illustrating this year's ultra-competitive MVP race. One week, Dwight Howard was #1 and LeBron James was #3; in the next poll, they'd swapped places. In fact, the most consistent candidate was Kevin Garnett--the only player in this quintet yet to hold #1--as KG never fell below fourth nor rose above second.
We know that, over the course of a season, voters change their ballots based on fluctuations in player and team performance, not to mention factors like dramatic wins or SportsCenter highlights. For example, Caron Butler appeared in just one ranking--10th overall, on Dec. 17th--and we'd bet that was tied to the Wizards' nationally televised victory over Shaq and Wade a few nights before, as much as Butler's play and team record.
So, in offering up these final five MVP candidates, we examine one factor--if recent team performance correlated with voter behavior. In addition to select stats and witty comments, the following players also get a big, distracting chart (The red line represents where the players ranked in MVP voting each round; the blue line represents their team's winning percentage in the two weeks between votes.) Judge for yourself; our back-of-the-envelope analysis is that there's a link, in addition to a bit of a lag.
5. Dwight Howard
20.7 ppg, 14.2 rpg, 59.9% FG, 2.1 bpg
36 win shares, 13.71 adjusted plus-minus
165 points, 94% of ballots
The league's leader in adjusted plus-minus, and by a wide margin. He also hasn't missed a game in his career.--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
A good supporting cast, but it is Howard who has got Orlando to this point. And Howard who will take the Magic further...--Don, With Malice...
Became a much better player this year, but fizzled down the stretch.--Jeramey, The Bratwurst
4. LeBron James
30.0 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 29.1 PER
43 win shares, 9.29 adjusted plus-minus
272 points, 100% of ballots
If Chris Paul is the glue making the pieces of his team fit, LeBron is the team itself; sans LBJ the Cavs are probably the worst offensive team in the league.--Franchise, RaptorsHQ
Long story short is that they didn't win enough games. That's bogus because they would have won less games than the TWolves without LeBron.--College Wolf, TWolves Blog
As far as MVP voting went, he would have been better off slacking the first half of the season like he did last year.--Brett, Queen City Hoops
He's an unbelievable player, but if you can't get more than 4 games over .500 in the Leastern Conference you can't win the award - that's actually engraved on the trophy. --Tom and Steve W., CelticsBlog
Hard to overlook his stats. Easy to overlook his team. Not quite the MVP.--David, The Dream Shake
3. Kevin Garnett
18.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.4 apg, 54% FG, 25.2 PER
36 win shares, 9.68 adjusted plus-minus
291 points, 100% of ballots (nine first place votes)
He's not getting enough love, methinks. Defense is a major, major part of the game, and you can't deny how much he has impacted that end of the floor. I mean, Boston has the third-best defensive efficicency of ALL TIME! How ridiculous is that.--Pradamaster, Bullets Forever
Never before has one man done so much... with so much. Wait, what?--Matt and Corn, Hardwood Paroxysm
HEY BOSTON IS DA GRATEST!!! HATAZ DON NO BOUT DEM CELTICS!!! via Ball Don't Lie--Goathair, The Blowtorch
2. Kobe Bryant
28.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 24.2 PER39 win shares, 10.56 adjusted plus-minus
317 points, 100% of ballots (12 first place votes)
As Tim Legler put it, he is the only player in the NBA who has no weaknesses. He is the only player since MJ who you would want to take the last shot and defend a player who is taking the last shot.--Dave, 20 Second Timeout
His leadership and poise are what set him apart. There are a lot of great leaders, but none would I have over Kobe.--Ryne, Odenized
The man can win games singlehandedly whenever he wants to, AND leap over speeding Aston Martins in a single bound.--Jeff, Courtside at the Score
He's still the best player in the NBA. Just not the most valuable this year. There are worse things in life than #2 in MVP voting...--David, The Dream Shake
(Kobe's kind of our horse in the race, despite voting for Paul; amidst last fall's trading frenzy, we were hoping that he could still pull a Hakeem Olajuwon in L.A.).
1. Chris Paul
21.1 ppg, 11.6 apg, 2.7 spg, 57.6% TS, 28.3 PER
50 win shares, -.06 adjusted plus-minus
334 points, 100% of ballots (15 first place votes)
He's having the best traditional point-guard season of all-time, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. "Value" applies to the community, too.--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
Try to win 56 games in the West with Mo Peterson as your STARTING teammate in the back court and tell me how it works...--Ricky, Sixers 4 Guidos
By PER, the man just had THE single greatest season in the history of the point guard position. Better than Magic, Oscar, or Stockton in their prime. I just don't see how that can go unrewarded.--Rohan, At the Hive
How do we compare?
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Here's one final, crowded chart: A compilation of every poll from across the season. Note how the same players remained in the top five all season, while 13 different players rotated through the bottom five slots.
You can see a full-size version of this graphic here.
If the chart's abbreviations throw you off, check out this spreadsheet, which contains the year-long MVP results, in addition to full voting for today's awards. In tracking players' "full body of work," the spreadsheet also illustrates how cumulative voting (i.e., Dwight Howard gets 9 points for finishing second in the inaugural poll, 10 points for finishing first in the second poll, etc.) would have significantly altered the MVP results: LeBron would be the hands-down winner, while Kobe would've finished fourth and Steve Nash--who wasn't even in the final poll--would've ranked sixth.
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A Texas-sized hat-tip to Brew Hoop's Alex--who dreamed up these rankings nearly six months ago--for letting us close out this fantastic regular season. Not to mention, many thanks to the kind voters (listed out below) and to you, the reader...who now knows far more about bloggers' MVP preferences than he ever wished.
Esteemed voters
David (Dream Shake); Ryne (Odenized); Franchise (RaptorsHQ); Spartacus (3 Shades of Blue); College Wolf (TWolves Blog); Matt and Corndogg (Hardwood Paroxysm); David (20 Second Timeout); Brian (Empty the Bench); Ben Q. Rock (Third Quarter Collapse); Don (With Malice); Ryan (HoopsAddict); Green 17 & Steve W. (Celtics Blog); Alex (BrewHoop); Basketbawful (Basketbawful); ticktock6 and mW (Hornets Hype); Dannie (Hoops State of Mind); Carter Blanchard (Free Darko); Rohan (At the Hive); Matt Watson (DetroitBadBoys.com); Tom (Indy Cornrows) Pradamaster (Bullets Forever); Josh (Dinosty); Jeramey (The Bratwurst); Jeff (Courtside at The Score); Wes Cox (Mavs Moneyball); Goathair (The Blowtorch); TruthAboutIt (TruthAboutIt.net); Ricky (Sixers 4 Guidos); Phoenix Stan (Bright Side of the Sun); Matt (BlogABull.com); Brett (Queen City Hoops); John (Red's Army); Andre (Nuggets 1); M. Haubs (The Painted Area); Jeremy (Pickaxe and Roll)
Previous rounds
- Brew Hoop
- ClipsNation
- 3 Shades of Blue
- Sixers4Guidos
- Pickaxe & Roll
- Hardwood Paroxysm
- CelticsBlog
- TwolvesBlog
- Hornets247
- Queen City Hoops
Labels: 7th Man of the Year, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, J.R. Smith, Jason Maxiell, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Louis Williams, MVP, NBA
posted by Crucifictorious @ 21:30,
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End-of-season Basket-Blogger Rankings
Monday, April 21, 2008
The regular season's over, which means the NBA blogger voting has come to a close (for now; you never know if a Playoff MVP needs to be crowned). We Rite Goode managed this final, 11th iteration of the polling, which was last hosted by Queen City Hoops two weeks ago; for those new to the process, votes are compiled from roughly 20-40 blogs each round.
To reveal today: Basket-bloggers' final Rookie of the Year, as well as our collective Coach of the Year and Most Improved Player picks.
(Inspired by the NBA's own staggered reveal--not to mention Neal Pollack's love for this kind of thing--we're going to stretch the results out into multiple posts. Consider yourself warned.)
Let's get to it.
Rookie of the Year
Honorable mention: Jamario Moon, Carl Landry, Joakim Noah
5. Thaddeus Young
8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 53.9% FG, 16.5 PER
31 points, Named on 46% of ballots
There wasn't much talk about Young when he was drafted out of Georgia Tech but his play was one of the main reasons for Philly's late season success.--Franchise, Raptors HQ
As the second-youngest rookie this season, Young has acted downright grown-up as a starter for the surging Sixers.--Ryne, Odenized
4. Al Thornton
12.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 apg, 12.7 PER
37 points, 57% of ballots
He can probably replace Corey Maggette's production if Maggette opts-out this summer. Can you believe he slipped all the way to 14th?--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
This guy has big-time scorer written all over him. Great athlete whose game just needs a little polishing.--Dave, 20 Second Timeout
Two Al's in the top five!--Phoenix Stan, Bright Side of the Sun
3. Luis Scola
10.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 51.5% FG, 16.1 PER
101.5 points, 97% of ballots
Made a very smooth transition from dominating Europe to not quite dominating the NBA. Fears surrounding his ability to rebound proved to be unfounded.--Jeremy, Pickaxe and Roll
2. Al Horford
10.1 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 49.9% FG, 14.7 PER
148 points, 100% of ballots
Will be making money while Durant's sitting at home with his Mom watching Days of Our Lives.--Matt and Corndogg, Hardwood Paroxysm
You don't win the award for being the pre-season choice, KD.--Josh, The Dinosty
1. Kevin Durant
20.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 15.8 PER
166 points, 100% of ballots
PLEASE CALL HIM KID DELICIOUS--The Blowtorch
Hands down; go look at LeBron or KG's numbers as a 19 year old.--TruthAboutIt.net
Why do people think this was a dissapointing season? +20ppg with +.50 TS% ain't that bad. Any star with that supporting cast is going to have a hard time being efficient. And his endgame heroics leave more than enough to be excited about for the future.--Carter Blanchard, Plissken at the Buzzer/FreeDarko
How do we compare?
Coach of the Year
Honorable mention: Mo Cheeks, Phil Jackson, Stan Van Gundy
3. Doc Rivers
Celtics, 2007: 24-58, 28th in offensive rating, 16th in defensive rating
Celtics, 2008: 66-16, 9th in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
26 points, 40% of ballots
Ok, we know KG did all the work, but still.--Jerramy, The Bratwurst.
No matter what anyone says, he gets some credit for the greatest "win" turnaround in NBA history. He had very little time to get all the new players on the same page and things running smoothly.--College Wolf, TWolvesBlog
2. Rick Adelman
Rockets, 2007: 52-30, 15th in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating
Rockets, 2008: 55-27, 17 in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating
39 points, 51% of ballots
Had the Rockets doing things they had no right to be doing.--Don, WithMalice
Twenty-two in a row. Loses Yao (and T-Mac). Continues to win. In the West. With *Rafer* as his PG.--David, The Dream Shake
1. Byron Scott
Hornets, 2007: 39-43, 23rd in offensive rating, 14th in defensive rating
Hornets, 2008: 56-26, 5th in offensive rating, 7th in defensive rating
69 points, 77% of ballots
If you look at Hornets roster and at their record, you should realize there must be a reason for their overachievement.--Ricky, Sixers 4 Guidos
I saw him pull a ballsy move by switching his star PG off Rajon Rondo because Rondo was too quick. Most coaches would defer to the kid's ego. I like that he didn't.--John, Red's Army
How do we compare?
Most Improved Player
Honorable mention: Mike Dunleavy, Jose Calderon, Rajon Rondo
3. Chris Paul
2007: 17.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 8.9 apg, 1.8 spg, 22.0 PER
2008: 21.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 11.6 apg, 2.7 spg, 28.3 PER
18 points, 23% of ballots
Yeah, this is a weird vote. But think about it, he's taken his game from potential All-Star to greatest season in PG history. That's a 6.3 jump in PER; it took Monta Ellis a 3.9 jump to win last year.--Rohan, At the Hive
All-Star to MVP candidate is quite a leap.--Brett, Queen City Hoops
2. Rudy Gay
2007: 10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 12.4 PER
2008: 20.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 17.5 PER
22 points, 31% of ballots
He's almost doubled his scoring average and would be an All-Star if he played for a contender.--Third Quarter Collapse
1. Hedo Turkoglu
2007: 13.3 ppg, 4.o rpg, 3.2 apg, 14.2 PER
2008: 19.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.0 apg, 17.8 PER
69 points, 74% of ballots
Admit it. You weren't expecting a career year from Hedo.--Basketbawful
He's got a special place in my heart as a late-round fantasy pick.--Jeff, Courtside at the Score
He must be on steroids.--Pradamaster, Bullets Forever
How do we compare?
Click here to see how the voting for today's awards shook out; come back tomorrow to see the unveiling of our Seventh Man of the Year...and something called the MVP.
(Update: Part II is here).
Esteemed voters
David (Dream Shake); Ryne (Odenized); Franchise (RaptorsHQ); Spartacus (3 Shades of Blue); College Wolf (TWolves Blog); Matt and Corndogg (Hardwood Paroxysm); David (20 Second Timeout); Brian (Empty the Bench); Ben Q. Rock (Third Quarter Collapse); Don (With Malice); Ryan (HoopsAddict); Green 17 & Steve W. (Celtics Blog); Alex (BrewHoop); Basketbawful (Basketbawful); ticktock6 and mW (Hornets Hype); Dannie (Hoops State of Mind); Carter Blanchard (Free Darko); Rohan (At the Hive); Matt Watson (DetroitBadBoys.com); Tom (Indy Cornrows) Pradamaster (Bullets Forever); Josh (Dinosty); Jeramey (The Bratwurst); Jeff (Courtside at The Score); Wes Cox (Mavs Moneyball); Goathair (The Blowtorch); TruthAboutIt (TruthAboutIt.net); Ricky (Sixers 4 Guidos); Phoenix Stan (Bright Side of the Sun); Matt (BlogABull.com); Brett (Queen City Hoops); John (Red's Army); Andre (Nuggets 1); M. Haubs (The Painted Area); Jeremy (Pickaxe and Roll)
Previous rounds
- Brew Hoop
- ClipsNation
- 3 Shades of Blue
- Sixers4Guidos
- Pickaxe & Roll
- Hardwood Paroxysm
- CelticsBlog
- TwolvesBlog
- Hornets247
- Queen City Hoops
Labels: Al Horford, Byron Scott, Chris Paul, Coach of the Year, Hedo Turkoglu, Kevin Durant, Luis Scola, Most Improved Player of the Year, NBA, Rick Adelman, Rookie of the Year
posted by Crucifictorious @ 04:48,
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From Michael to Eddie: Jordan, five years gone
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Emancipation Day will shut down the nation's capital today (well, at least delay our trash collection) but another milestone will pass unnoticed for most D.C. residents--probably for the best, as many wouldn't know whether to celebrate or mourn.
Today's the fifth anniversary of Michael Jordan's final NBA game, an inglorious end for the sport's greatest star: A blowout loss that was further sullied by his adopted Wizards uniform.
The Jordan years were an odd chapter, even for a star-crossed franchise that once employed the NBA's shortest and tallest man (twice).
Years later, it's still unfathomable: The Greatest Of All Time wanted to come here--the Clippers of the East?
Well, no, not really.
But back in January 2000, after the Chicago Bulls refused their legend and the Charlotte Hornets rebuffed the local kid made good, Wizards part-owner Ted Leonsis swooped in and made MJ a $56 million offer he couldn't refuse: A free stake in ownership, equity in Leonsis's holding company, and control over basketball operations. And when MJ needed to scratch his basketball itch a final time, there was only one natural place to play.
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Washington is a town of transients, filled with college students and young professionals, with political types who come and go with elections. So we forget the irrational exuberance of eight years ago, when the Wizards first courted Jordan--at the time a basketball Midas, with six straight championships in his six previous full seasons--stirring the city into frothy anticipation.
Sure, some wondered if Jordan would make a good GM--noting that athletic stardom hardly translated to operational excellence--but they were drowned out by the 56-point headlines. "Washington gets a new 'Air' Force," the Post quipped. "Mr. Jordan goes to Washington (to rescue the Wizards)" wrote the AP. Even when the team cratered at 19-63 the following year--and absentee executive Jordan took a few PR hits--D.C. was again electrified for months when MJ started dropping hints of his on-court return.
We won't spend much time summarizing that third act, which is captured quite well--if critically--in "When Nothing Else Matters," by the Post's Michael Leahy, and in Pradamaster's excellent essay at Bullets Forever. Simply, Jordan remained amazing, with his will and shot-fake arsenal enough to win games on his own (although he'd shoot the team to a loss just as frequently). Still, walking into an crackling MCI Center, the great one's presence always infused us with anticipation...even after we saw him flat-footed and clad in Wizards' white-and-blue, like a parody of himself. Some weird Bizarro wearing #23.
However, most memories of the Jordan-errs--an ill-matched collection of mediocre lottery picks and second-tier veterans--are best lost to time. Jordan's own indecision ultimately doomed the team, as he yo-yoed between a sixth-man mentor (trying to "teach the young players to win") and an aging king who wouldn't leave the court (50+ minutes in three games his final six weeks).
Still, when Jordan waved goodbye in Philadelphia, more than three years after becoming a part-owner and two seasons after coming out of retirement, he'd turned the Wizards into box office champs, packing the house at home and selling out every road game. He'd gotten the team on TV and transformed the MCI Center into a destination (and, not insignificantly, boosted Nike's Jordan sales by a few hundred million dollars). Now one of the oldest guards in league history, Jordan had seemingly accomplished everything asked of him in three years as player/GM...except get the Wizards into the playoffs.
And with his stunning exit three weeks later--fired by majority owner Abe Pollin, dividing the Washington Post's own sports section and roiling the town--Jordan never got a chance to try again. Later, the Wizards leaked stories of a dysfunctional relationship with Pollin, of disgruntled players in the locker room. Retroactive spin or long-buried problems...it's hard to say. But the era of Err ended as unexpectedly as it began.
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There's still a Jordan in D.C., of course--Eddie, the longest-tenured coach in the Eastern Conference, who was hired weeks after Michael's dismissal. And after the doom-and-gloom predictions of five years ago, it's beyond amazing that a coach--who struggled for years to win a third of his games--has made a far bigger impact on Washington basketball than the GOAT.
We're not the first to notice that in taking the Wizards to the playoffs (four years and counting), Eddie did what Michael could not. But it is striking that the two Jordans have eerily similar winning percentages in D.C., albeit with totally different results--MJ, leading a flawed team that couldn't get over the hump; EJ, steering a squad that can challenge the league's best.
As discussed on Bullets Forever, Coach Jordan may not have had the firepower to win in D.C. if player/GM Jordan hadn't made the franchise relevant and profitable; perhaps MJ's lingering aura even attracted free agent Gilbert Arenas--a future three-time All-Star--and proven GM Ernie Grunfeld. But who could've predicted that those three moves would've paid off? Incompetent, dishonest Abe Pollin??
NBA.com chat, Sept. 9, 2003
Rafael Masakayan - Fairfax, VA: With Michael Jordan no longer with the Wizards, do you expect your attendance to decline? Are lots of people asking for refunds?
Abe Pollin: Good question...While I know that we will not sell out every game next season, I'm confident that our fans will enjoy Eddie Jordan's up-tempo style of coaching, Gilbert Arenas' exciting basketball talent, and the management decisions of Ernie Grunfeld.
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Of course, had Arenas not chosen Washington, creating a domino effect that brought Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, we might remember the MJ era as a rare highlight in decades of mediocre Washington basketball--a rare superstar gracing the city. Instead, it's more likely that firing Michael Jordan ranks as a shining moment; certainly, it was a franchise turning point and, given MJ the GM's track record, it's hard to imagine that he could have produced the turnaround that's followed.
In fact, we now know that the NBA--once tied to their incandescent star, and constantly searching for the "next MJ"--was ready to move on, too. Even as Jordan wrapped his final game, the seeds were being planted for his successor.
The very next night, high schooler LeBron James played his first game at MCI Center.
Labels: Eddie Jordan, Michael Jordan, NBA, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 02:38,
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Bench those nasty thoughts
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Fellow basket-blogger PhDribble has tasked us and others with a bold mission: Do away with "the cult of the starter." Foster conversation about whether stars should come off the bench, or remove any stigma when writing about reserves. Perhaps this will spark a revolution, or at least a TrueHoop link.
We like PhDribble quite a bit--even if Doctor Dribbles is this close to sending a cease-and-desist--and we like going against the conventional wisdom, too. But this is kind of crazy, right? An NBA where coaches ask max-contract stars to give up starting spots? Which cuts the distinctions between starters and reserves? Perhaps we're mere cultists, but the idea struck us as sheer lunacy.
Naturally, we considered it.
Teams have won with this strategy. Ballhype's Jason Gurney points out the Spurs' success with Manu Ginobili; we remembered how the raw Ervin Johnson started and the aging Sam Perkins closed for the great mid-90s Sonics. Teams have lost by ignoring the strategy, too. PhDribble notes how Detroit--with an established core of veterans in 2003--erred by drafting Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, largely to avoid the roster controversy of Melo pushing Tayshaun Prince for a starting spot.
Interestingly, PhDribble contends that some stars don't co-exist well; for example, the Rockets might be better if Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady played as little of the game together as possible. To some extent, that suggestion "feels" right--simply, Yao is slow, T-Mac is fast, and the Rockets could tweak their on-court quintet to maximize each star's skills. Plus, some stats and performance seem to bear the idea out. Houston won ten games in a row even without Yao, as McGrady boosted his scoring average; according to 82games.com, the pair have a lower winning percentage and adjusted +/- this year when playing together than playing apart.
In fact, unlike Deron Williams/Carlos Boozer, or Pau Gasol/Kobe Bryant, Yao/McGrady might be the most incompatible pair of stars in the NBA...which is why we think PhDribble's argument falters. Let's explain.
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Performance
Looking at the bigger picture, most good NBA coaches can structure a system to feature multiple stars' strengths, such as Mike D'Antoni incorporating Shaq into the Suns or Don Nelson maximizing the Warriors' run n' gun. For their part, unless a player needs the ball in his hands--like an aging and one-legged Chris Webber--the greats can learn to complement one another, like the Celtics' or Wizards' trios. And even if Yao and T-Mac are particularly ill-matched, they still make for a more formidable combo together than apart.
First, the Rockets' +/- stats this year are thrown off by their massive winning streak with Yao injured. Looking back on similar figures from 2006 and 2007, the team clearly was better with both stars on the floor. Plus, Yao and McGrady were each more productive players this year when playing together; without Yao drawing the double team, T-Mac's FG% and 3P% measurably fell even as his shot attempts jumped up, while Yao's own performance slid and his turnovers went up 30% per game as he tried to do more without T-Mac.
PhDribble also proposes Melo and AI as another mismatched set of stars. Again, the +/- this year backs that up, a bit...but it was just the opposite last year. Given that the +/- data isn't conclusive, we'd contend it's the lack of talent around the stars that's kept Denver from clinching a playoff berth.
Frankly, most stars play better when they've got superior players surrounding them, creating more opportunities and allowing the star to do more within a role. Although Manu's devastating off the bench, even he's more productive as a starter than as a sub.
Pecking order
As goathair pointed out, bloggers can try and change perceptions, but there will always be five starters; with starting spots come minutes, as a coach wants his five best players on the floor in hopes of establishing an early lead--he's not looking to inject energy at the five-minute mark unless the team needs it.
And as we'd argued, this hierarchy is key; it incents reserves to fight for more minutes, not accept their place off the bench. Acknowledging such hierarchies, PhDribble wonders if having a pecking order is "necessary or a crutch?"--but we think even talent-laden teams need a rotation.
For example, the 1995-1996 Kentucky Wildcats were an unbelievably loaded college basketball team; the NCAA champs featured eight future NBA players (five starters, three reserves), even after coach Rick Pitino red-shirted one player (future 2nd round draft pick Jared Prickett) and ran off another (future NBA swingman Rodrick Rhodes) to further avoid team infighting. If there was ever a team that could blur the distinctions between starters and reserves, it was this one. And sure--ten guys ended up playing regular minutes, but only five players started 24 or more games, as even Pitino needed to establish a consistent rotation for game-planning purposes.
Perks
Having attended last night's Wizards victory, we were reminded yet again--it may not be the United Center circa MJ, but there's nothing like a crowd of thousands chanting your name during introductions.
There's so little stigma associated with being a reserve in the NBA, when you think about it; the average bench player somehow deals with a multiple million-dollar contract, a huge per diem, fancy hotels, and indiscriminate groupies. It's a comfortable life for many players who never scratched their full potential...really, there should be more incentives for starting positions, not fewer.
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We do agree on one point, though: There's considerably more greatness coming off the bench than just Manu or Leandro Barbosa. So we'll do our part to help celebrate it.
As some folks know, we're hosting the final edition of this year's blogger NBA awards...and thinking of ways to better recognize the reserves, we've come up with the new "Seventh Man" award, which is exactly how it sounds.
It probably won't make TJ Ford feel better about losing his spot to Jose Calderon, or get John Salmons to stop sulking.
But when de-programming cultists like us...it's a start.
Labels: Bench, Ginobili, NBA, PhDribble, sports blogs are on fire
posted by Crucifictorious @ 22:10,
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My name is Juan Dixon
Saturday, April 5, 2008
This is my view of the court, most of the night. As a fifth guard for the Detroit Pistons, I play about 12 minutes a game.But it wasn't always like this.
As a college star, I used to get a lot of floor burn.
Six years ago this week, I even had my shining moment.But that was just college, experts said. I wouldn't make it in the NBA; they claimed I was too small, that my jumper was too weak. Guys like Rod Grizzard and Steve Logan were ahead of me on the draft boards.
But one man believed. He plucked me in the draft, thinking I was worthy to sit at his side.
Looking back, my years in D.C. were good ones. The team wasn't great, but expectations were low and the town loved my effort and work ethic. When we finally made the playoffs, I even played a starring role, bringing fans to their feet.
Still, I wanted to get paid. And the Trailblazers obliged, to the tune of $8 million over three years.
My days in Portland were happy, at first; I ended up starting at shooting guard most nights, and Coach McMillan loved my guts and grit.
It didn't last, though. The team was awful, and everyone said that a skinny, short combo guard was part of the problem. So we drafted Brandon Roy and gave more time to Jarrett Jack. I fell out of favor by midseason and got shipped to Canada.
It felt like I'd been elbowed aside.
Toronto was sort of like Portland; things started well, but my time to shine quickly faded. After a year in the T.dot, I got dealt to Detroit; now, I sit behind rookies Arron Affalo and Rodney Stuckey, who sit behind Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups.
And that takes us back here.
Six years in the League, and I'm officially a journeyman guard.
But I'm not ashamed.
Draft experts said I'd be a second-round pick; the Wizards took me after the lottery. GMs said I was too small to stick in the league; I've outlasted bigger, more-hyped guards like Dajuan Wagner, Qyntel Woods, and Jiri Welsch. And maybe I'm a fifth guard, but it's on a team with a chance for a title. A team that's eyed me for more than a year.
This could be it for me in the NBA, though. My contract's up this summer, and who knows where I'll land next. The bottom of an NBA roster, at best; Europe, most likely.
Still, fans won't soon forget my heart and hustle. My drive in carrying the Terps, my hard work to carve an NBA niche. At least for a day, my praises will be sung.
Labels: Juan Dixon, Maryland, NBA, Portland Trailblazers, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 20:20,
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Play big, pay bigger
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Bill "The Sports Guy" Simmons has fans, haters, and even a theme song--but it's still fascinatingly unclear if sports bloggers collectively love or despise the guy. At the very least, his columns provoke conversation and resulting criticism or defense of his alleged homerism, writing style, and knowledge.
The most recent grist for the mill: Simmons' annual trade value column, which is attracting more commentary by the hour.
Every year, Simmons ranks players in order of their value in a trade--by his logic, Dwight Howard is the NBA's 2nd most untradeable player, because the Magic would only deal him for the NBA's most untradeable player, LeBron James. Tim Duncan is the 3rd most untradeable player, because the Spurs would only deal him for Howard or LeBron, and so on. While Simmons better explains his rationale in the article--which is definitely worth a read--the list tends to be highly subjective and admittedly theoretical, with some questionable conclusions. Positional differences aside, at the same age and pay, is David West really a better value than Caron Butler?, we ask Bullets Forever.
(The inconsistencies are easier to understand after Simmons raised the curtain this year, podcasting his annual list-making conversation with buddy Joe House--an entertaining, if not confidence-inspiring discussion. The pair lacked accurate salary data and made inconsistent logical leaps, while House's repeated capitulations to Simmons during the "debate" won't inspire Wilberforce-Huxley comparisons.)
However, buried within the piece are two small, interesting sidebars: Simmons' Top 15 Best and Top 25 Worst contracts in the NBA.
Generated as a side-product of the Top 50 list, these shorter rankings are somewhat more objective. By avoiding the qualitative baggage that Simmons and House talked through, these lists more purely represent good and bad values--and led us to two, quick observations.
1. Playing for the Wizards gets you paid
Well, as we no, not everyone got paid in D.C.
But while Butler's contract (Simmons' 13th best overall) is a model of fiscal restraint, Simmons names one current and five former Wiz kids among the top 20 worst contracts. Sure, Brian Cardinal (#20) got only a cup of coffee in the capital, but the careers of Ben Wallace (#7) and Bobby Simmons (#8) were launched by Washington, and Larry Hughes (#2) and Jared Jeffries (#11) played key roles on the breakthrough 2005 playoff team.
Still, the team isn't exactly the Bulls of the '90s--where guys like Luc Longley, Jud Buechler, and Jason Caffey parlayed their Jordan championships into big free agent contracts--so it's unclear what's so attractive about ex-Wizards. Their coating of magic dust?
2. Big pay + big man = Big mistake
Check out the names we've written in red: The NBA officially lists these guys as playing some center. Scroll back up, and you'll see four of Simmons' 15-best contracts belong to big men; meanwhile, Simmons believes that 15 of the 25 worst contracts in the league--60% of the list--belong to underachieving centers.
Set aside the rankings for a second; it doesn't matter if Larry Hughes is #2 or #12, so long as you agree that his contract is among the worst in the NBA. So if you're generally OK with the inclusion of the contracts listed above, it's not surprising that so many bad deals belong to big men; centers command the highest per-position salaries in the games and competition to get even a decent backup can lead to overbidding. Meanwhile, wing players and big guards tend to have some of the best values per contract, partly because of their relative abundance.
However, overbidding can't be the only reason that center valuations appear inflated. Is it because teams too quickly place a premium on halfway-effective big men? For example, the Celtics offered $42 million to Mark Blount after he had one good year, but aren't there plenty of NBDL, CBA, and European centers who would've provided 85% of Blount's contribution, but at 25% of the price?
Alternatively, maybe the bad contracts signify teams' willingness to roll the dice with centers, who tend to retain value longer than quick guards or athletic forwards. Does it make more sense to take a risk on a Nazr Mohammed, because some other GM who needs size can still be
Or do these contracts represent teams' desperation for big men in the Shaq/Duncan era? If we went back and looked in the late '80s and '90s, when teams focused on acquiring do-everything guards like Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson or versatile forwards like Scottie Pippen, would we see fewer centers being overvalued?
We prefer to end posts with answers, not questions, but appeal for some second opinions here. Perhaps someone can even point to a John Hollinger or Dave Berri post that's already explored this topic (but if so, we're not sure who to trust these days).
Labels: NBA, When did Bill Simmons become the dorky kid in the cafeteria
posted by Crucifictorious @ 18:30,
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Don't hate the player: The grate of fame
Friday, December 14, 2007
Where we were.
Where we are.
- 20 Second Timeout: Is Gilbert Arenas the Most Overrated All-Star in the NBA?
- Passion and Pride: Arenas is a better blogger than baller, calls out Iguodala
- Charley Rosen: Wizards getting by without Arenas and his "belligerent e-mails" (HT: JakeTheSnake)
But easy doesn't always equal accurate.
Gilbert had a Cinderella season on- and off-court in 2006-07, even if the ending was more fractured than fairy tale. Then, once his hype got a bit ahead of his 'comp this year, Gil was shelved before he could yet again let his play speak for himself. And do you doubt that he would have stepped up? Take a lesson.
So now we're into a favorite pastime: Making yesterday's hero into today's tackling dummy.
The Wiz are more than Arenas, of course, and we DC-ites all enjoy the new look, but like Dwyer/Truthaboutit/HSCS point out, let's not pretend this team into a contender yet. Especially without Arenas. Over the past 15 years, nobody--not Webber nor Howard, not Butler nor Jamison, and certainly not Err Jordan--has been as dynamic or clutch in a Washington uni as Gil.
Not even Ledell. It may sound like blasphemy, but even if Arenas is half the man of A-Train, he's three times the player.
20 Second's Friedman may contend that at 128-118 from 2004-2007, the Arenas-led Wizards have been "mediocre for quite some time"--but behind Gil, the Clippers of the East have finally shaken off the cellar! Dave, you realize this is Washington's best three-year stretch in 30 years? Antawn and Caron were strong additions, but Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, they're not.
Injuries sometimes fast-track certain players to the spotlight. Tracy McGrady became a star at the expense of Grant Hill's ankle. Kurt Warner only started because Trent Green went down in the preseason. But the sidekick getting to (short-term) star is a more familiar theme. Last week, Manu's 37-point specials pushed the Duncan-less Spurs over the Mavs and Jazz. Last year, one A.I. stepped up for another in Philly. Even Scottie was MVP-caliber when MJ left for...well, we've collectively forgotten that chapter. Yet who thinks Iggy > Iverson, or would take Pippen over Jordan?
So temporary vanishing acts and surprise star turns are essential parts of the sports fabric; fans aren't required to hate on what's gone missing, just better appreciate what we've got. And in the Wizards' case, maybe it was more than we knew.
Labels: Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Ledell Eackles, NBA, Washington Wizards
posted by Anonymous @ 12:37,
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Heat : Wizards :: Mike Miller's Monkey : Great Dane
Thursday, December 13, 2007
The post's title pays homage to a bizarre must-read on True Hoop--and the SAT's verbal analogies section--but just as Sonny rode a dog around the neighborhood, the Wiz cannot get the Heat off their backs.
Washington's losing streak is no secret around D.C.; what's less well-known are the pitiful details.
Counting their 2005 playoff sweep, the Heat are 19-1 against Washington in the teams' last 20 games; while the Wiz flipped the script during the two-year MJ era, going 5-3 against South Beach, the Heat also were 11-0 in the three years beforehand. That's basically a nine-season stranglehold on the series; the last time the Wizards were competitive without MJ, Miami's Ike Austin was battling Washington starting center Terry Davis in the post.In fact, Washington's only swept the series once: When the teams played just twice in 1989-90, Miami's first season. Not surprisingly, the Heat have an unreal .705 lifetime winning percentage against the Wizards.
Looking at the 27 teams that existed pre-1995, a few other head-to-head matchups are similarly lopsided--and none are pretty, with traditional powers like the Lakers and the Spurs owning the historically weak Clippers and T-Wolves, respectively. It's progressively easier to forget after three straight playoff trips, but the Bullets were East patsies for decades. Ever since Riley arrived in 1996, the Heat haven't been.
So what to expect tonight, as the 11-10 Wizards face the 6-15 Heat? Unclear. Minus Agent Zero, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison have rallied D.C. to a pretty good place, tempting some fans to use tonight's game as a measuring stick. However, since neither good nor bad Wizards teams could beat the Heat, it's tough to place any stock in yet another loss. Which is expected, after all: the Heat are somehow favored by 5.5 points.
Rather, tonight better forecasts the Heat's prospects: If they win, they'll probably claw back into the playoffs. Since 1998, the only two seasons that Miami didn't win the season series with Washington were the only two years the Heat fell into the lottery. There's no better example than last year, when the Heat made the playoffs partly on the strength of beating the Wizards three times down the stretch.
In fact, until someone takes the crown from them, the Heat remain Southeast kings-for-life; no one else has ever won the three-year-old division, and a stumbling Orlando and muddling Atlanta aren't cinches.
But like Shawn Kemp's career, reigns don't last forever. If the Wiz can win tonight...and Dec. 29, March 23, or April 4...history says that the 2006 champs will be 2008 playoff chumps. Although, that's still better than being Miller's chimp.
Labels: Dwyane Wade, NBA, Shaquille O'Neal, Washington Wizards
posted by Anonymous @ 18:59,
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Kelly Dwyer's blog sucks
Or so say his brilliant, incisive readers at the new Yahoo! Sports NBA Experts Blog. Eight days in on Jamie Mottram's first big move as the Y!'s blogging maven, here's a sampling of responses to Dwyer's 13 (!) posts yesterday:
There's plenty more talk radio-level analysis to be found; one post alone--"Players who have scored more than Jason Collins scored last year"--collected at least two dozen slams. And not the Nick Young kind.
As a result, gauging the blog by readers' responses--something certain critics have been known to do--leaves a dismal impression, with more than one comment suggesting Dwyer should be looking at J-Jobs.
Exactly what we bloggers were saying all along, right?
The guy was born to blog. But what has he been doing? I get emails all the time. Where's Kelly Dwyer?One blogger, two completely different languages. What gives?
-True Hoop
Some big news in the basketball blogosphere: Kelly Dwyer, of SI.com fame, has a wonderful new basketball blog at Yahoo! Sports.
-Brew Hoop
This may be the best news for fans of good NBA news in a long time — Kelly Dwyer has a blog.
-Forum Blue And Gold
I am shocked and appalled at myself for failing to link to this earlier, but the venerable Kelly Dwyer has taken over the Yahoo hoops blog. This is huge. Kelly has the heart of a blogger but for whatever reason tried to be a columnist for SI.com. Well, I suppose that worked out fine for him too, but this is really where his talents belong.
-Celtics Blog
From an objective standpoint--say, using the same criteria we applied to newspaper blogs--Dwyer's totally acing every measure for a great site. He's prolific and blog-friendly, the words are sharp, the length is right, and the analysis is tight.
And for better or worse...folks are reading!
But while the bloggers who get what Dwyer's doing love him, many Y! members seem to be unfamiliar with the blogging model. As a result, their expectations are totally misaligned; short posts like "Players who..." do seem like "pointless articles" next to Kenny Smith's latest 15-paragraph cliche. Yet let's not cut them too much slack; while the Y! executive editor believes the site has "an audience and community that is desperate to interact with each other," all we've seen so far is the lamest form of community-building: Picking on the new kid.
Look, Dwyer doesn't need our random, infrequently updated blog defending him--the guy wrote for SI.com and better-connected friends have his back (An overdue full disclosure: Our riters liked Dwyer's stuff a lot, often discussing his pieces back when we launched WRG; now that he's been linking to us, it's safe to say we love his stuff). We doubt he's going anywhere, even if commenter Michael L. calls Dwyer a "bumb" who needs to be fired. The uninitiated will catch on eventually.
But until the learning curve for the Y! readers wears down--or the noise trickles out--Dwyer could use all of us who enjoy his work. Leaving the occasional positive comment, balancing out the harsh, or even helping a perplexed new reader understand exactly how this whole blogging thing works.
We realize, this is a totally prescriptive post, and we're not super-comfortable with offering it--we prefer sticking to basketball insights, Orioles complaints, and the occasional cheese-related observation. And really, do you owe Dwyer (or more specifically, Yahoo! Sports, which unfortunately forces commenters to register)?
So think of it this way: The sports blog readership is growing, but it's still a trickle compared to Yahoo! Sports' audience in a given month (4.9 million unique visitors in December 2003; 20.2 million in August 2007). And to have someone of quality repping the blog game, who can emerge for the masses like Henry Abbott at ESPN's True Hoop? Every new reader that Dwyer sells on sports blogs, every person who follows a link--that's a win for all of us.
And when those wins add up...well, we don't know what motivates you, but the more mainstream sports blogging gets, the better chance you'll have of turning a profit on your words, getting picked up by a newspaper, or finding that girl who thinks that writing posts for an audience of three at four in the morning (or just reading them) is a normal activity.
Thus inspired, take up your keyboards and enter the fray. The ties that bind us are fascinatingly diverse, but when we're under attack by legions of teenage fantasy football players, Blogfrica should stand together.
Labels: kelly dwyer, NBA, yahoo sports
posted by Crucifictorious @ 03:48,
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LeBron return carries hint of quiet amazing
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Very, very good news out of Cleveland. Yes, LeBron's back--but even better, so's more evidence of his savvy. From ESPN.com.
James checked in with 5:59 left in the first quarter and the Cavs leading 15-11. He entered with Hughes and forward Anderson Varejao, who was making his season debut after ending a contract holdout last week by signing a three-year, $17 million contract.Shelving the cynicism, credit the 22-year-old--who has every right to be angry over Varejao's holdout--with yet another veteran move. And while Dwight Howard's getting all the love (and features) this week, LeBron's having the stronger individual season, both on- and off-the-court. Helping broker peace between angry fans and a holdout Brazilian isn't Nobel-worthy, but a far more graceful act than a young Michael Jordan's notorious teammate freeze-outs. Perhaps guesting on the Simpsons helped LeBron sympathize with Sideshow Bob?
James said he requested that coach Mike Brown bring him in off the bench to offset any negative reaction toward Varejao, who during messy on-and-off negotiations said he didn't want to play for Cleveland again.
"I thought it would raise the intensity of the fans, having me, Larry and Andy come in at the same time -- and it worked," James said. "I thought by coming in with Andy it might stop some of the boos Andy might get, just protecting my teammates."
In fact, LeBron's splendiferous season is a resurgent masterwork, as he continues to rebound from last year's downer. Face it: LBJ's playoff performance may be one for the ages, but the King royally coasted through 2006-07 on his talent; then in the off-season, there was the Yankees cap-flap that set Cleveland afire and the SNL appearance that made bloggers' eyes' bleed.
But...all is forgiven and forgotten, when you show up for work the way that LeBron has. With new focus, he's leading the league in PER, playing much-improved D, and collecting a triple-double every fourth game. And thanks to the Nash-Barbosa corollary, the Cavs' six straight losses before tonight position LBJ as a formidable MVP candidate when it's time to collect the ballots.
(Not to mention, LeBron's never mailed it in with the endorsement game, becoming the top-earning star under 25. The guy just can't miss, except when Brett Edwards is watching).
Scream about Howard all you want--and rightfully so, as greatness is being magically realized in Orlando. But back in Cleveland, as we increasingly take the King's majesty for granted, note this special royal favor. In a league Where Amazing Happens, there's little more surprising than superstars realizing the nuance of a moment. And the 10-12 Cavs, made physically and psychically whole again, will be the better for it.
Labels: LeBron James, NBA, veteran's savvy
posted by Anonymous @ 00:10,
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Artistical cheeses of the week
Monday, December 10, 2007
Like Shaq shooting free throws, Photoshop is totally out of my wheelhouse. You can hardly tell, right? Maybe I'll improve on my early work one day, but for now it's cool, since our blog's about riters, not artistes. Of course, guys like the Wizznutzz and the Hype Guy are complete masters of the Photoshop game, which makes their blogs not just cooler than ours, but a lot more entertaining to look at. When your blogmates are writing 2,000 word essays on the history of the three-second violation...which may happen one of these days...this "readability" thing starts becoming more important.
But we're not going to get better at Photoshop, and since we can't just steal other blogs' creations--as much as I might secretly want to--here's the next best thing, a few links to some of the more amusing mash-ups I've seen recently. Enjoy.
Bullets Forever
Nick Young keeps going, and going...
truthboutit.net
CP3->N.O. The point guard is more machine than man.
NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness
The sweet dance of victory in Hotlanta
Make 'Toine an All-Star
Teaching kids, conducting an orchestra, fighting with the Empire...Employee #8's been a busy man
posted by Anonymous @ 18:33,
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Players' development arrested: The NBDL, reconsidered
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Before it was gobbled up by Internet gremlins, a quick post on Thursday was all set to discuss PhDribble's very sharp commentary on how NBA teams develop (or more often, don't) their young players.
Since it's a really interesting read that's deservedly blown up--with pundits Abbott and Ziller since weighing in--there's no need to re-rite our lost words (General conclusion by all: It's every man for himself out there.)
Instead, we'll lay out a proposal for a better future, where teams *do* cultivate their young: Use the NBDL as the NBA's minor-leagues.
Yes--it's brilliant and revolutionary, right? Wasn't that the NBDL's point, in the first place?
Well, not really.
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When the developmental league was announced in March of 2000, the NBA was reacting to a PR disaster. In a few short months, Leon Smith--a 1999 first-round draft pick out of high school--had attempted suicide and clashed with police, before washing out of the league for good. Clearly, Smith was troubled before being drafted, but the NBA spotlight did him no favors. At the same time, Smith represented the first real crisis for a preps-to-pros phenomenon that had benefited the NBA, producing stars like Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett.
While, pre-Smith, the NBA was considering an overseas minor league--all part of David Stern's world domination strategy--having a state-side alternative eased teams' ability to stash young players under official league supervision. The NBDL wasn't without controversy, of course; to avoid complaints that such a league would spur "competition" with colleges for basketball players, the NBA worked hard to distinguish the NBDL as a league for older players. One oxymoronic Washington Post headline read "Developmental League Targets Experienced Players"; according to the article, the NBDL sought veterans who were the last cuts of an NBA training camp, rather than college-age athletes--a hiring pattern that continues today.
Entering its seventh year, the NBDL has generally achieved its early goals. It's doubled in size, from eight teams its first year to 16 today, but isn't attractive enough to tempt marginal college basketball players to turn pro early. It's provided experience not only for players, but rising coaches, officials, and trainers too. And it's allowed the NBA to extend its brand into new corners of America, although attendance is generally lackluster.
But despite the "D" in its name, the NBDL isn't well-suited for player development, largely because its teams aren't really connected to NBA franchises. In baseball, for example, a minor league team is directly integrated with the big-league club, enabling a franchise to ensure organization-wide strategies and consistent instruction. In comparison, most NBDL teams are "affiliated" with two or three NBA teams, which can mean an NBDL coach often teaches a completely different offense or defense than a partner NBA organization uses. Moreover, NBA teams can only assign two of their first- or second-year players to a NBDL roster. Instead, the NBDL itself signs and controls most of the players, meaning any NBA team can "call up" the first NBDL veteran they choose.
As a result, the league has a mercenary core--most players aren't working to be promoted by their parent organization, but instead audition for the entire NBA, all the time. The every-man-for-himself routine can make for an unstable roster; despite a shorter, 50-game season, most NBDL teams last year used 20 or more players, as guys would leave mid-season to find other opportunities. And because it's hard to truly teach in quicksand, the players who most benefit from the NBDL are those who come with ready-made games, simply waiting for an NBA spot to open up.
For example, the two players called up this season--the 30-year-old Jelani McCoy and 29-year-old Eddie Gill--already have a combined 12 seasons in the NBA. Other than getting exposure and staying in game shape, it's doubtful that either "developed" new skills in their brief NBDL seasons.
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Of course, the NBDL has success stories--and one of the best is ex-Fort Worth Flyer and current Golden State Warrior Kelenna "Buike" Azubuike.
Coming out of Kentucky in 2005, Buike was viewed as an intriguing-if-flawed prospect; ESPN's draft experts had flagged him as an "inconsistent shooter," which the website Draft Express further explains:
If [Kelenna] is to someday make the NBA, he'll have to become a much better shooter from outside. Kentucky was sorely lacking a player who could hit the open 3 to compliment Rajon Rondo's ability to drive and dish, and Kelenna was not able to do that in many games for Kentucky this year, failing to hit more than one three pointer in 20 of Kentucky's 34 games. This is hardly the type of shooting ability you would expect from an NCAA junior who is confident enough in his offensive skills to forfeit his final year of NCAA eligibility.An inconsistent shot didn't stop Buike from being a willing shooter, however. In his Kentucky career, he averaged one three-point attempt every 8.5 minutes played (for comparison's sake, Michael Redd is averaging one three-pointer every 8.8 minutes played, Tracy McGrady every 8.1 minutes.)
Buike went undrafted and ended up with the NBDL's Flyers, where he started about half of the team's games and played pretty well (12.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.5 apg in 25.6 mpg); the next fall, Buike returned to the Flyers after being the Cleveland Cavaliers' final cut. But something had changed in his game between those first and second years. Since we're bloggers who can't actually interview the guy, we'll have to read between the lines of a few cryptic newspaper quotes.
- In an early season victory over Los Angeles, Buike hit five threes on the way to a 13-17 shooting performance and 35 points; "I've tried to work on my shot," he told a reporter.
- Two weeks later, when Buike shot 4-7 from deep to beat Tulsa, he again said, "I've been working hard to improve my 3-point shooting."
Now a sharper shooter, Buike became much more aggressive, too. While Buike took one three-pointer per 13.3 minutes his first year in the NBDL, he upped that to one attempt per 7.6 minutes (For a sense of comparison, Michael Redd shoots a three every 8.8 minutes, Tracy McGrady every 8.0.). The Warriors called Buike up in January and he continued his aggressive and fairly accurate shooting the rest of the year, winning a spot with the team and getting even more PT this year; here's a chart demonstrating the evolution of his three-point shooting, accurate through Friday.
It's one thing for a professional player who didn't shoot much in college to improve his shot over a number of years. In two seasons at UConn, the Wizards' Caron Butler took one three every 18 minutes, making 36.3%; prior to this season's dramatic improvement, Butler only shot once every 27.5 minutes and hit 30.3% in the pros.
But for swingmen who were aggressive shooters in college, like Buike, and feasted on shorter three-point lines (19'9"), slower defenders, and the greater use of zone, it's rare to see significant improvement in the pros--losing these advantages, the greatest all-time shooters instead shot slightly worse after leaving school. Since the NBA and NBDL share 23'9" three-point lines (a fact kindly confirmed by True Hoop's Abbott), let's combine Buike's Fort Worth-Golden State stats to get a better picture of how his three-point shooting really has dramatically improved, despite the greater challenges and 'pro' distance.
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It's tough to know how much the NBDL helped Buike--playing with the same team, two years in a row--versus how much he helped himself, on his own. But his shooting improvement came somewhere and, at minimum, the NBDL let him play against near-NBA competition and with NBA rules.
Several other players have demonstrably improved while playing in the NBDL. Undrafted out of Notre Dame, Matt Carroll in 2003-2004 sandwiched two unspectacular stints in the NBA (with a PER of 6.2, in very limited minutes) around 11 games with the NBDL's Roanoke Dazzle, where he played capably, but not exceptionally. However, Carroll returned to the Dazzle the next year and had an awesome campaign, picking up the league's MVP award; by the time the Bobcats signed him in 2005, Carroll clearly had taken a step forward and was ready to be a rotation player.
But unlike baseball's system, where the better minor leaguers can enjoy reasonable careers after making it to the majors, many NBDL-to-NBA players simply wash out. Of the 13 NBDL players who were called up during the 2005-2006 season, only two (Chuck Hayes and Ime Udoka) are still in the NBA. And shouldn't the ability to cultivate and retain talent be the ultimate test of a "developmental" league?
So--many paragraphs later--here's the proposal.
The NBA drops all pretense, stops inching forward, and within two years turns the NBDL into a true minor league: One team per NBA franchise, to be coached and staffed however the major league club desires. Simultaneously, the league expands both the NBA draft and NBA rosters; while only 12 players could be active for any given game, keeping with current rules, a taxi squad of five-to-six players would either stay with the team to be activated on any given night or play with the NBDL team.
Such a system would require waivers, so teams couldn't shuttle players back and forth from the NBDL forever. The limit on players' experience levels also would be relaxed as well, so veterans could use the NBDL to work themselves back into shape after injury or still-young third- and fourth-year players could add new touches to their games.
In many ways, a true minor league would only improve the quality of NBA play. Teams could better draft and cultivate for need; the Magic could use their minor league squad to identify the best shooters to fit around Dwight Howard, or an aging team like the Celtics could take flyers on a handful of athletic-but-unskilled players, who they could teach up to replace a Ray Allen or Kevin Garnett in several years. Moreover, the change would diminish the current reliance on European teams to act, unpredictably, as a de facto minor league system. Rather than drafting foreign players to stash overseas--and going through complex negotiations to finally sign them--the NBDL could be a true alternative for international players who might not be ready for the NBA, but want to test the American experience.
But the niftiest feature of such a minor league is a pleasure that many baseball fans, growing up far from a major league franchise, already know: Watching present and future stars play in your town, even for a cup of coffee. Like a Roger Clemens drawing record crowds in Trenton, fans might be able to watch LeBron return from injury in Rio Grande or Gilbert warm up in North Dakota. The Portland Trailblazers' current NBDL affiliate is the Idaho Stampede; if Greg Oden played his first game in Boise, wouldn't the entire state light up like his smile?Labels: Golden State Warriors, Kelenna Azubuike, Matt Carroll, NBA, NBDL
posted by Crucifictorious @ 23:39,
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