Rankings: The 7th Man of the year (oh, and MVP, too)
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Let's face it: Part I of the final basket-blogger awards played to script, with Durant (ROY), Scott (COY), and Hedo (MIP). However, today's rankings of 7th Man and MVP promise to be more surprising and--dare we say--interesting.
Still, prepare yourself for lots of charts and numbers; bloggers provided six months of data, after all. How could we not analyze it?
7th Man of the Year
We elected to skip 6th Man--not just because Manu Ginobili was near-unanimous, but since typical candidates are de facto starters--and instead wanted to recognize a true impact reserve. A player who doesn't get starter's minutes (so, no one who played more than 24 mpg) and came off the bench all season (so, no one who started more than 25% of the games he played in).
Here's how basket-bloggers voted:
Honorable mention: Jordan Farmar, Leon Powe, Jannero Pargo.
3. Louis Williams
11.5 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.0 spg, 16.7 PER
Per 36 minutes: 17.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.6 spg
Adjusted plus-minus: -7.68
12 points, named on 15% of ballots
Perfect third guard, although we'll probably end up overpaying him--and starting him.--Phunctional Phalcoholic, We Rite Goode
2. JR Smith
12.3 ppg, 1.7 apg, 40% 3FG, 18.1 PER
Per 36 minutes: 23.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.2 apg
Adjusted plus-minus: -1.99
22 points, 35% of ballots
The Nuggets are in the lottery without his scoring, and yes, passing, off the bench.--Jeremy, Pickaxe and Roll.
INAUGURAL 7TH MAN - Jason Maxiell
7.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 54% FG, 21.6 mpg, 16.7 PER
Per 36 minutes: 13.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.9 bpg
Adjusted plus-minus: 4.34
29 points, 46% of ballot
He anchors a very good bench for a team that is, in my view, the 2nd best team in the NBA.--John, Red's Army
He eats babies.--Pradamaster, Bullets Forever
Editorializing for a second, our friend PhDribble wants bloggers to better recognize bench players; he'd be happy to know that 23 different 7th men were nominated, with 11 receiving at least one first-place vote. Not surprisingly, the polling strongly favored reserves on playoff teams, which tend to be deeper and bring more talent off the pine.
Another aside: Had this award been based solely on adjusted plus-minus--basically, how much better was a team with X player on the court--Eduardo Najera (plus 9.25) would have won 7th man in a landslide, as he was among the league leaders. Second and third among 7th men were Tony Allen (plus 5.08) and Kyle Korver (plus 4.80), respectively.
Most Valuable Player
Whether it was wins, points, or lifetime achievement, most basket-bloggers based their MVP choice on established criteria. Then there were the voters who felt that charisma in street clothes (one 9th place vote for Greg Oden) or simply leaving the team (one 10th place vote for Jeff McInnes) were enough to warrant consideration.
You'll see the results below, but one trend we've identified, which is sure to help some runner-up's candidacy next year: Keep your bad haircut. After shaving their heads, Andrew Bogut and Chris Kaman finished tied for just 23rd.
Honorable mention: Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Tracy McGrady
10. Manu Ginobili
19.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.5 apg, 61.2% TS, PER 24.3
32 win shares, 10.65 adjusted plus-minus
62 points, 50% of ballots
As he goes, so go the Spurs. No disrespect to Timmy, but it's the truth.--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
9. Deron Williams
18.8 ppg, 10.5 apg, 59.5% FG, 20.8 PER
31 win shares, 2.06 adjusted plus-minus
66 points, 50% of ballots
Even though as a Nugget fan I hate the Jazz, Deron is just too good to put any lower.--Jeremy, Pickaxe and Roll
8. Dirk Nowitzki
23.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 58.5% TS, 24.6 PER
34 win shares, 8.16 adjusted plus-minus
67 points, 57% of ballots
In many ways Dirk has been much more of an MVP candidate to me this year than last. He's shown unexpected toughness and resiliency and was the reason Dallas topped the 50 win mark once again.--Franchise, RaptorsHQ
7. Amare Stoudemire
25.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 65.6% TS, 27.6 PER
43 win shares, -1.47 adjusted plus-minus
99 points, 67% of ballots
Some questioned his passion and work-ethic in the beginning of the season...Those people have been very quiet.--Ryne, Odenized
6. Tim Duncan
19.3 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.9 bpg, 24.3 PER
32 win shares, 7.52 adjusted plus-minus
104 points, 72% of ballots
Didn't everyone think he was washed up like 3 years ago?--College Wolf, Twolves Blog
Top five in MVP voting
Let's pause for a second. Not for dramatic emphasis, but to consider how these final five players separated themselves across the season; none dropped below fifth in our rankings, and four--LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, and Chris Paul--held the top spot at some point.
However, every player who once held first also ranked as low as fourth or fifth at some point, illustrating this year's ultra-competitive MVP race. One week, Dwight Howard was #1 and LeBron James was #3; in the next poll, they'd swapped places. In fact, the most consistent candidate was Kevin Garnett--the only player in this quintet yet to hold #1--as KG never fell below fourth nor rose above second.
We know that, over the course of a season, voters change their ballots based on fluctuations in player and team performance, not to mention factors like dramatic wins or SportsCenter highlights. For example, Caron Butler appeared in just one ranking--10th overall, on Dec. 17th--and we'd bet that was tied to the Wizards' nationally televised victory over Shaq and Wade a few nights before, as much as Butler's play and team record.
So, in offering up these final five MVP candidates, we examine one factor--if recent team performance correlated with voter behavior. In addition to select stats and witty comments, the following players also get a big, distracting chart (The red line represents where the players ranked in MVP voting each round; the blue line represents their team's winning percentage in the two weeks between votes.) Judge for yourself; our back-of-the-envelope analysis is that there's a link, in addition to a bit of a lag.
5. Dwight Howard
20.7 ppg, 14.2 rpg, 59.9% FG, 2.1 bpg
36 win shares, 13.71 adjusted plus-minus
165 points, 94% of ballots
The league's leader in adjusted plus-minus, and by a wide margin. He also hasn't missed a game in his career.--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
A good supporting cast, but it is Howard who has got Orlando to this point. And Howard who will take the Magic further...--Don, With Malice...
Became a much better player this year, but fizzled down the stretch.--Jeramey, The Bratwurst
4. LeBron James
30.0 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 7.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 29.1 PER
43 win shares, 9.29 adjusted plus-minus
272 points, 100% of ballots
If Chris Paul is the glue making the pieces of his team fit, LeBron is the team itself; sans LBJ the Cavs are probably the worst offensive team in the league.--Franchise, RaptorsHQ
Long story short is that they didn't win enough games. That's bogus because they would have won less games than the TWolves without LeBron.--College Wolf, TWolves Blog
As far as MVP voting went, he would have been better off slacking the first half of the season like he did last year.--Brett, Queen City Hoops
He's an unbelievable player, but if you can't get more than 4 games over .500 in the Leastern Conference you can't win the award - that's actually engraved on the trophy. --Tom and Steve W., CelticsBlog
Hard to overlook his stats. Easy to overlook his team. Not quite the MVP.--David, The Dream Shake
3. Kevin Garnett
18.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.4 apg, 54% FG, 25.2 PER
36 win shares, 9.68 adjusted plus-minus
291 points, 100% of ballots (nine first place votes)
He's not getting enough love, methinks. Defense is a major, major part of the game, and you can't deny how much he has impacted that end of the floor. I mean, Boston has the third-best defensive efficicency of ALL TIME! How ridiculous is that.--Pradamaster, Bullets Forever
Never before has one man done so much... with so much. Wait, what?--Matt and Corn, Hardwood Paroxysm
HEY BOSTON IS DA GRATEST!!! HATAZ DON NO BOUT DEM CELTICS!!! via Ball Don't Lie--Goathair, The Blowtorch
2. Kobe Bryant
28.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 24.2 PER39 win shares, 10.56 adjusted plus-minus
317 points, 100% of ballots (12 first place votes)
As Tim Legler put it, he is the only player in the NBA who has no weaknesses. He is the only player since MJ who you would want to take the last shot and defend a player who is taking the last shot.--Dave, 20 Second Timeout
His leadership and poise are what set him apart. There are a lot of great leaders, but none would I have over Kobe.--Ryne, Odenized
The man can win games singlehandedly whenever he wants to, AND leap over speeding Aston Martins in a single bound.--Jeff, Courtside at the Score
He's still the best player in the NBA. Just not the most valuable this year. There are worse things in life than #2 in MVP voting...--David, The Dream Shake
(Kobe's kind of our horse in the race, despite voting for Paul; amidst last fall's trading frenzy, we were hoping that he could still pull a Hakeem Olajuwon in L.A.).
1. Chris Paul
21.1 ppg, 11.6 apg, 2.7 spg, 57.6% TS, 28.3 PER
50 win shares, -.06 adjusted plus-minus
334 points, 100% of ballots (15 first place votes)
He's having the best traditional point-guard season of all-time, and he saved basketball in New Orleans. "Value" applies to the community, too.--Ben Q. Rock, Third Quarter Collapse
Try to win 56 games in the West with Mo Peterson as your STARTING teammate in the back court and tell me how it works...--Ricky, Sixers 4 Guidos
By PER, the man just had THE single greatest season in the history of the point guard position. Better than Magic, Oscar, or Stockton in their prime. I just don't see how that can go unrewarded.--Rohan, At the Hive
How do we compare?
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Here's one final, crowded chart: A compilation of every poll from across the season. Note how the same players remained in the top five all season, while 13 different players rotated through the bottom five slots.
You can see a full-size version of this graphic here.
If the chart's abbreviations throw you off, check out this spreadsheet, which contains the year-long MVP results, in addition to full voting for today's awards. In tracking players' "full body of work," the spreadsheet also illustrates how cumulative voting (i.e., Dwight Howard gets 9 points for finishing second in the inaugural poll, 10 points for finishing first in the second poll, etc.) would have significantly altered the MVP results: LeBron would be the hands-down winner, while Kobe would've finished fourth and Steve Nash--who wasn't even in the final poll--would've ranked sixth.
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A Texas-sized hat-tip to Brew Hoop's Alex--who dreamed up these rankings nearly six months ago--for letting us close out this fantastic regular season. Not to mention, many thanks to the kind voters (listed out below) and to you, the reader...who now knows far more about bloggers' MVP preferences than he ever wished.
Esteemed voters
David (Dream Shake); Ryne (Odenized); Franchise (RaptorsHQ); Spartacus (3 Shades of Blue); College Wolf (TWolves Blog); Matt and Corndogg (Hardwood Paroxysm); David (20 Second Timeout); Brian (Empty the Bench); Ben Q. Rock (Third Quarter Collapse); Don (With Malice); Ryan (HoopsAddict); Green 17 & Steve W. (Celtics Blog); Alex (BrewHoop); Basketbawful (Basketbawful); ticktock6 and mW (Hornets Hype); Dannie (Hoops State of Mind); Carter Blanchard (Free Darko); Rohan (At the Hive); Matt Watson (DetroitBadBoys.com); Tom (Indy Cornrows) Pradamaster (Bullets Forever); Josh (Dinosty); Jeramey (The Bratwurst); Jeff (Courtside at The Score); Wes Cox (Mavs Moneyball); Goathair (The Blowtorch); TruthAboutIt (TruthAboutIt.net); Ricky (Sixers 4 Guidos); Phoenix Stan (Bright Side of the Sun); Matt (BlogABull.com); Brett (Queen City Hoops); John (Red's Army); Andre (Nuggets 1); M. Haubs (The Painted Area); Jeremy (Pickaxe and Roll)
Previous rounds
- Brew Hoop
- ClipsNation
- 3 Shades of Blue
- Sixers4Guidos
- Pickaxe & Roll
- Hardwood Paroxysm
- CelticsBlog
- TwolvesBlog
- Hornets247
- Queen City Hoops
Labels: 7th Man of the Year, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, J.R. Smith, Jason Maxiell, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Louis Williams, MVP, NBA
posted by Crucifictorious @ 21:30,
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