Players' development arrested: The NBDL, reconsidered
Sunday, December 9, 2007

Before it was gobbled up by Internet gremlins, a quick post on Thursday was all set to discuss PhDribble's very sharp commentary on how NBA teams develop (or more often, don't) their young players.

Since it's a really interesting read that's deservedly blown up--with pundits Abbott and Ziller since weighing in--there's no need to re-rite our lost words (General conclusion by all: It's every man for himself out there.)

Instead, we'll lay out a proposal for a better future, where teams *do* cultivate their young: Use the NBDL as the NBA's minor-leagues.

Yes--it's brilliant and revolutionary, right? Wasn't that the NBDL's point, in the first place?

Well, not really.

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When the developmental league was announced in March of 2000, the NBA was reacting to a PR disaster. In a few short months, Leon Smith--a 1999 first-round draft pick out of high school--had attempted suicide and clashed with police, before washing out of the league for good. Clearly, Smith was troubled before being drafted, but the NBA spotlight did him no favors. At the same time, Smith represented the first real crisis for a preps-to-pros phenomenon that had benefited the NBA, producing stars like Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett.

While, pre-Smith, the NBA was considering an overseas minor league--all part of David Stern's world domination strategy--having a state-side alternative eased teams' ability to stash young players under official league supervision. The NBDL wasn't without controversy, of course; to avoid complaints that such a league would spur "competition" with colleges for basketball players, the NBA worked hard to distinguish the NBDL as a league for older players. One oxymoronic Washington Post headline read "Developmental League Targets Experienced Players"; according to the article, the NBDL sought veterans who were the last cuts of an NBA training camp, rather than college-age athletes--a hiring pattern that continues today.



Entering its seventh year, the NBDL has generally achieved its early goals. It's doubled in size, from eight teams its first year to 16 today, but isn't attractive enough to tempt marginal college basketball players to turn pro early. It's provided experience not only for players, but rising coaches, officials, and trainers too. And it's allowed the NBA to extend its brand into new corners of America, although attendance is generally lackluster.

But despite the "D" in its name, the NBDL isn't well-suited for player development, largely because its teams aren't really connected to NBA franchises. In baseball, for example, a minor league team is directly integrated with the big-league club, enabling a franchise to ensure organization-wide strategies and consistent instruction. In comparison, most NBDL teams are "affiliated" with two or three NBA teams, which can mean an NBDL coach often teaches a completely different offense or defense than a partner NBA organization uses. Moreover, NBA teams can only assign two of their first- or second-year players to a NBDL roster. Instead, the NBDL itself signs and controls most of the players, meaning any NBA team can "call up" the first NBDL veteran they choose.

As a result, the league has a mercenary core--most players aren't working to be promoted by their parent organization, but instead audition for the entire NBA, all the time. The every-man-for-himself routine can make for an unstable roster; despite a shorter, 50-game season, most NBDL teams last year used 20 or more players, as guys would leave mid-season to find other opportunities. And because it's hard to truly teach in quicksand, the players who most benefit from the NBDL are those who come with ready-made games, simply waiting for an NBA spot to open up.

For example, the two players called up this season--the 30-year-old Jelani McCoy and 29-year-old Eddie Gill--already have a combined 12 seasons in the NBA. Other than getting exposure and staying in game shape, it's doubtful that either "developed" new skills in their brief NBDL seasons.

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Of course, the NBDL has success stories--and one of the best is ex-Fort Worth Flyer and current Golden State Warrior Kelenna "Buike" Azubuike.

Coming out of Kentucky in 2005, Buike was viewed as an intriguing-if-flawed prospect; ESPN's draft experts had flagged him as an "inconsistent shooter," which the website Draft Express further explains:
If [Kelenna] is to someday make the NBA, he'll have to become a much better shooter from outside. Kentucky was sorely lacking a player who could hit the open 3 to compliment Rajon Rondo's ability to drive and dish, and Kelenna was not able to do that in many games for Kentucky this year, failing to hit more than one three pointer in 20 of Kentucky's 34 games. This is hardly the type of shooting ability you would expect from an NCAA junior who is confident enough in his offensive skills to forfeit his final year of NCAA eligibility.
An inconsistent shot didn't stop Buike from being a willing shooter, however. In his Kentucky career, he averaged one three-point attempt every 8.5 minutes played (for comparison's sake, Michael Redd is averaging one three-pointer every 8.8 minutes played, Tracy McGrady every 8.1 minutes.)

Buike went undrafted and ended up with the NBDL's Flyers, where he started about half of the team's games and played pretty well (12.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.5 apg in 25.6 mpg); the next fall, Buike returned to the Flyers after being the Cleveland Cavaliers' final cut. But something had changed in his game between those first and second years. Since we're bloggers who can't actually interview the guy, we'll have to read between the lines of a few cryptic newspaper quotes.
Our guess: He was working on his shot!

Now a sharper shooter, Buike became much more aggressive, too. While Buike took one three-pointer per 13.3 minutes his first year in the NBDL, he upped that to one attempt per 7.6 minutes (For a sense of comparison, Michael Redd shoots a three every 8.8 minutes, Tracy McGrady every 8.0.). The Warriors called Buike up in January and he continued his aggressive and fairly accurate shooting the rest of the year, winning a spot with the team and getting even more PT this year; here's a chart demonstrating the evolution of his three-point shooting, accurate through Friday.



It's one thing for a professional player who didn't shoot much in college to improve his shot over a number of years. In two seasons at UConn, the Wizards' Caron Butler took one three every 18 minutes, making 36.3%; prior to this season's dramatic improvement, Butler only shot once every 27.5 minutes and hit 30.3% in the pros.

But for swingmen who were aggressive shooters in college, like Buike, and feasted on shorter three-point lines (19'9"), slower defenders, and the greater use of zone, it's rare to see significant improvement in the pros--losing these advantages, the greatest all-time shooters instead shot slightly worse after leaving school. Since the NBA and NBDL share 23'9" three-point lines (a fact kindly confirmed by True Hoop's Abbott), let's combine Buike's Fort Worth-Golden State stats to get a better picture of how his three-point shooting really has dramatically improved, despite the greater challenges and 'pro' distance.



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It's tough to know how much the NBDL helped Buike--playing with the same team, two years in a row--versus how much he helped himself, on his own. But his shooting improvement came somewhere and, at minimum, the NBDL let him play against near-NBA competition and with NBA rules.

Several other players have demonstrably improved while playing in the NBDL. Undrafted out of Notre Dame, Matt Carroll in 2003-2004 sandwiched two unspectacular stints in the NBA (with a PER of 6.2, in very limited minutes) around 11 games with the NBDL's Roanoke Dazzle, where he played capably, but not exceptionally. However, Carroll returned to the Dazzle the next year and had an awesome campaign, picking up the league's MVP award; by the time the Bobcats signed him in 2005, Carroll clearly had taken a step forward and was ready to be a rotation player.

But unlike baseball's system, where the better minor leaguers can enjoy reasonable careers after making it to the majors, many NBDL-to-NBA players simply wash out. Of the 13 NBDL players who were called up during the 2005-2006 season, only two (Chuck Hayes and Ime Udoka) are still in the NBA. And shouldn't the ability to cultivate and retain talent be the ultimate test of a "developmental" league?

So--many paragraphs later--here's the proposal.

The NBA drops all pretense, stops inching forward, and within two years turns the NBDL into a true minor league: One team per NBA franchise, to be coached and staffed however the major league club desires. Simultaneously, the league expands both the NBA draft and NBA rosters; while only 12 players could be active for any given game, keeping with current rules, a taxi squad of five-to-six players would either stay with the team to be activated on any given night or play with the NBDL team.

Such a system would require waivers, so teams couldn't shuttle players back and forth from the NBDL forever. The limit on players' experience levels also would be relaxed as well, so veterans could use the NBDL to work themselves back into shape after injury or still-young third- and fourth-year players could add new touches to their games.

In many ways, a true minor league would only improve the quality of NBA play. Teams could better draft and cultivate for need; the Magic could use their minor league squad to identify the best shooters to fit around Dwight Howard, or an aging team like the Celtics could take flyers on a handful of athletic-but-unskilled players, who they could teach up to replace a Ray Allen or Kevin Garnett in several years. Moreover, the change would diminish the current reliance on European teams to act, unpredictably, as a de facto minor league system. Rather than drafting foreign players to stash overseas--and going through complex negotiations to finally sign them--the NBDL could be a true alternative for international players who might not be ready for the NBA, but want to test the American experience.

But the niftiest feature of such a minor league is a pleasure that many baseball fans, growing up far from a major league franchise, already know: Watching present and future stars play in your town, even for a cup of coffee. Like a Roger Clemens drawing record crowds in Trenton, fans might be able to watch LeBron return from injury in Rio Grande or Gilbert warm up in North Dakota. The Portland Trailblazers' current NBDL affiliate is the Idaho Stampede; if Greg Oden played his first game in Boise, wouldn't the entire state light up like his smile?

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posted by Crucifictorious @ 23:39, ,


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