Dribbles on the Realests on Simmons, continued
Monday, June 25, 2007
Previously, on "We Rite Goode"
-Pedro Cerrano discovered that it's better to eat chicken than sacrifice it
-Crucifictorious explained his name to confused readers again
-Doctor Dribbles had beef with other bloggers
Yep, nothing new 'round these parts. On my end, I took issue with the Realests taking issue with the draft savvy of Bill "Sports Guy" Simmons. Not because of any great love for Simmons, but because picking a few examples out of years of coverage does not an accurate opinion make. Moreover, the included criticisms--such as Simmons somehow blew it by preferring Chris Paul to Deron Williams--were so lackluster that they undermined that blog's cherry-picked argument.
Still, I like the Realests and wanted to see if they were onto something, so looked carefully at one year of Simmons' thoughts on the draft. In a completely non-scientific process, I picked 2004 because we're far enough away from that draft to start separating the wheat from the chaff (who knows--Adam Morrison may still be a great player who had an awful rookie year), and Simmons already starts in the hole because he got Howard and Okafor wrong. Again, I'm using John Hollinger's rating system, where a PER of 15.0 equals an average NBA player, and taking into account where a player got picked versus the expectations/effusiveness of Simmons.Simmons 2004 wrap-up, with links to guys whose stories you may not know
Got right:
- Ben Gordon and Luol Deng to be good players, picks for Bulls in early first round
- Rafael Aurojo screamed El Busto for Raptors
- Sebastian Telfair as a "horrendous" pick as a lottery pick for Blazers
- Al Jefferson was best pick for Celtics at point in draft
- Pavel Prdzswsbqzpdne as the latest bad, giant stiff
- Back-to-back Blazer picks Viktor Khryapa and Sergei Monia as "either...one helluva platoon, or the Blazers just screwed up twice. I'm leaning towards the latter." The qualifier is both picks were late first-round, but neither's still with the Blazers, and Monia's already back in Russia (I think partly by choice, though).
- Delonte West as good pick for Celtics in late first-round
- Tony Allen as a decent rotation guy for the Celtics
- Andre Iguodala as a decent rotation guy for the 76ers. A bit wrong, because Iguodala's been far better than that, but at least Simmons thought he was a good pick.
- Kirk Snyder as a decent rotation guy
- Josh Childress as a bust. He hasn' t been a superstar, but at least he's been solid and worthy of a no. 6 pick.
- Devin Harris as overrated. Also not a superstar, but he's contributed to a top-tier team since Day 1 and had a great sophomore year, if a mediocre one in 2006-2007.
- As the Realests noted, Dwight Howard was a much stronger pick than Okafor, and Orlando made the right call after all.
- Shaun Livingston's upside wasn't worth the Clippers passing on Okafor for the now. Can't tell yet for sure, Simmons will probably be proven right over time.
- Robert Swift to be a bust. Could go either way. Doesn't hurt Simmons that Swift had to miss the entire year with injury.
- Was unimpressed by David Harrison, who has indeed been mediocre, but what do you expect of the last pick in the first round?
- Chris Duhon as a "better version" of Kevin Ollie. Maybe proven true over time, but Ollie has still had better individual years than any Duhon's put up so far.
In fact, let's compare Simmons--a guy who's by no means ESPN's NBA Draft "expert"--to the guy who was getting paid to be exactly that, Chad Ford. Obviously, Ford had a lot more opinions than Simmons and made tougher calls on guys that Simmons could afford to ignore or be unsure about.
Still, it's interesting to see how much worse Ford's hit rate was.
Ford's 2004 wrap-up, with links to guys whose stories you may not know
Got right:
- Kevin Martin as a solid player. Like Simmons on Iguodala, undersells Martin's value but at least it's recognized whereas Simmons didn't even know him. And as you'll see, Ford needs as much credit as we can find for him.
- Telfair was taken "way too high"
- Trevor Ariza as a second-round steal.
- Jameer Nelson and Anderson Varejao as solid picks for the Magic.
- Kris Humphries as a great fit in Utah. Have always been confused why Humphries isn't a better player, but that doesn't mean he's a good player waiting to break out.
- Dwight Howard as a worse pick for Magic than Okafor. Same logic as Simmons.
- Rafael Aruojo as a good pick.
- David Harrison as a good pick.
- Joshes Smith and Childress as "weird" choices in Atlanta. They may not be exactly what the Hawks needed at the time, but at least they've been productive for their draft positions. If Marvin and Shelden Williams had been similarly accomplished, the team would be a lot better.
- Pavel Pdolozinkne as the sleeper pick. Unless Ford meant that Pavel P would play like he was asleep, that's pretty damning.
- Luke Jackson as a great pick for Cavs. Until the last chunk of this season, he was already out of the league, although because of injury I believe.
- Robert Swift as better than Al Jefferson. While both players are still young, Jeff already is a solid starter and looking like the real deal, whereas Swift has struggled to get minutes and stay healthy.
- Sergei Monia as a great pick for the Blazers and a big miss for the Nets. As previously noted, this "big two who can shoot and has toughness" is already out of the league.
- Kirk Snyder as an immediate impact player in Utah. He wasn't, but did have a strong sophomore year in New Orleans/OK City, although fell off again with the Rockets. Close to being flat-out wrong.
- Romain Sato, the Spurs' late second-round pick, to probably make the team. He has yet to sniff any NBA roster, but hard to penalize speculation about a later-round player.
- Ford prefered some guy named Ricky Minard to Kevin Martin. As Minard was not the one averaging 20 ppg in the NBA last year, this almost goes under "wrong," although Ford claimed to like both players.
- Jackson Vroman was an "excellent" second-round pick. He made the NBA, which is more than some, but was picked pretty early in the 2nd round and better players like Trevor Ariza and Chris Duhon were still available.
- Tony Allen and Delonte West picks as a "little weird" for the Celtics. Also, Ford strongly disagreed with some statement by the Celtics or Ainge that I can't find. Specifically, Ford said that "the stuff about having Allen and West ranked as the second-best two guard and point guard in the draft is either some serious after-the-fact spin, or everyone in [the Celtics] scouting department needs to be fired. That's ridiculous." Well...I don't know who the Celtics had ahead of Allen and West (I'm guessing Ben Gordon and Devin Harris/Shaun Livingston) but looking at the competition and using Hollinger's PER, they really have been about the 2nd or 3rd best SG and PG out of the '04 draft (especially if you're excluding tweeners like Josh Smith, Iguodala, etc.). Notably, Allen was starting to have a great season before he went down. Might have been a little bit of salesmanship, but hardly a fireable offense.
- Iguodala as a "steal" at no. 9. He's certainly been one of the better players from the draft, but it's unclear whether he's the 4th best player in the class. This past year, Howard, Okafor, Deng, and Gordon put up better PERs, while Childress and Harris have had better three-year careers to this point.
- Peter "Party John" Ramos as an excellent second-round pick. Not so much, although it was only the second round.
Labels: basketball, hope "robert kleeman" is not code for Doc Dribbles, Never analyzing draft again, When did Bill Simmons become the dorky kid in the cafeteria
posted by Anonymous @ 00:16,
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Ten bigger upsets than Warriors-Mavs
Thursday, May 17, 2007
A 67-win team, with the likely league MVP and coming off an NBA Finals appearance, is totally dominated by a ragtag Warriors squad making its first playoffs appearance in a decade. Shocking stuff; the gut reaction is "biggest upset in basketball history." Then comes the reaction to the reaction--"no big surprise," say others in our cynical, cynical age.
To make sense of the upset's historic proportions, as only the well-read (if not well-written) proprietors of WRG can, we've thought of ten more shocking upsets that, to this day, make us shake our heads in disbelief.
10. NC State over Houston/Villanova over Georgetown.
Let's be honest. The Warriors didn't even pull the biggest upset in roundball history; these two Cinderella stories, playing for the NCAA Championship in the mid-80s, faced much greater odds. Forget the gauntlet of the tournament; to win the title, the teams overcame future NBA Hall-of-Famers--Houston sported Olajuwon and Drexler while Georgetown trotted out Ewing--who dominated the college game in a way Dirk can do for only about three minutes in the pros. And not only were '83 NC State and '85 Villanova no teams for the ages, they were hardly teams for the next level. Can you name one NBA player off either squad? Besides Nova's Ed Pinckney, who may or may not have been the focal point of my Bucks offense in NBA Live 95, but I digress.
9. Nuggets over Sonics.
Sticking with basketball, perhaps the most similar comparison to last week's series. Two favorites, in the Mavs and Sonics, with #1 seeds and Finals aspirations; two challengers, in the Warriors and Nuggets, that snuck into the playoffs with unspiring 42-40 records.
But for reasons articulated all over the interweb, '94 was the bigger playoff upset. This year, the Mavs slouched into the playoffs while the Warriors came in on fire. Back in '94, it was the Sonics closing the regular season on a scorching 17-2 run, while the Nuggets ended the year a ho-hum 6-8. When Seattle took the first two games in a best-of-five series, the only question
was when they'd get their third win (as opposed to last week, when the only question was whether Dallas would get A win). Plus, what image will lodge in the minds of basketball fans for years to come--Matt Barnes' fauxhawk, or Dikembe Mutumbo's floor ecstasy?8. U.S. over Russia.
Winter Olympics, men's ice hockey, 1980. Well-chronicled. Backdrop of Cold War between two superpowers somewhat more important than tiff between Mark Cuban and Don Nelson. If unitiated, watch ESPN Classic once in a while or rent "Miracle."
7. "Crash" over any other 2005 movie.
The Warriors: Not a good team. We should all agree on that. Crazy shots, lack of discipline, no clear ability to play in the half court. They might be on a hot streak, but they're never going to be coronated as the NBA's best. But fun to watch, like a cheesy B movie.
"Crash": Not a good movie. Manipulative, fake, preachy. And definitely painful to watch.
So of course it wins Best Picture.
That alone doesn't make an upset--the Academy keeps picking the wrong movie in recent years anyway. Witness "Forrest Gump" winning over "Pulp Fiction" and "The Shawshank Redemption," or back-to-back victories for "Gladiator" and "A Beautiful Mind"...good movies, but not ones we'll be urging our kids to rent in 20 years. Still, there's a difference betwen watercooler debate and out-and-out upset. And when a Best Picture doesn't make critics' top 100 list for the year--but the new Star Wars, Batman, and Harry Potter films do--you almost wonder what kind of world we live in. Almost.
6. Ric Ocasek over everyone.
For the hand of Paulina Porizkova.
Tough to find a basketball equivalent. Andris Biedrins winning the free-throw crown...Michael Ruffin being named MVP. Maybe.
Upsetting on a different level, too, but doesn't score higher because it offers hope for everyone.
5. U.S. over Great Britain
Any good sports fan knows the basketball upsets; any American can have an opinion about the Oscars or mismatched Hollywood couples. But this 1950 World Cup victory has faded into bolivian, probably unfairly. True, it was only the first round of the Copa Mundial, but given the nationalist fervor and every four-years stakes, that's still a heck of a lot more important than the first round of the NBA playoffs. And based on the U.S.'s pre-World Cup feats--they'd been outscored 2-45 in their last seven international games--and Britain's standing as one of the elite teams in the world, the only basketball comparison would be if the Celtics had been the ones upsetting the Mavs--in the Finals no less.
4. Henry V, English over the French at Agincourt
Made for a good play, movie, and one of the world's greatest speeches. 6,000 Brits outnumbered somewhere between 3-1 and 6-1 by the French, but suffering only a fraction of the casualties. The Warriors may have only played 6 1/2 guys, but they weren't that outmanned by the Mavs.
And Stephen Jackson, while highly quotable, lacks the certain flair of Prince Hal.
3. Dewey defeats Truman defeats Dewey.
Truman's presidential victory in '48 was such a surprise that the papers were already printed to favor his opponent...but you already know this, if you graduated
elementary school.The local newspapers were bullish on the Mavs--but not too optimistic.
2. Mighty Ducks over the Hawks, world.
In the tradition of the Bad News Bears. To recap for those of us over 30 or under 15, the Mighty Ducks--or as they were previously known, the Minneapolis District Five junior hockey team--were the consumate lovable losers: The team never scored and would always give up at least five goals (or so Wikipedia tells me, as I just can't seem to find my commemorative Ducks Trilogy DVD). But through the old power of redemption, hard work, and a sports montage or two, new coach Gordon Bombay leads a prepubescent Pacey and a bunch of "outsiders" to the league championship, defeating the Hawks--who have exactly one loss in the past 20 years, apparently--in a shootout.
A huge upset, no question. But what takes it from "Waterboy" territory to #2 on this list is what happened the next year: The Ducks (with a few quirky add-ons) take on the world's greatest junior hockey teams and win an international title.
Really?
I'd move the Warriors up here if they represent the U.S. in Beijing next year--and win gold, that is.
1. Joey Dorsey over Greg Oden.
No, seriously.
1. David over Goliath.
The original.
Labels: basketball, paulina, upsets
posted by Crucifictorious @ 00:28,
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