Play big, pay bigger
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Bill "The Sports Guy" Simmons has fans, haters, and even a theme song--but it's still fascinatingly unclear if sports bloggers collectively love or despise the guy. At the very least, his columns provoke conversation and resulting criticism or defense of his alleged homerism, writing style, and knowledge.
The most recent grist for the mill: Simmons' annual trade value column, which is attracting more commentary by the hour.
Every year, Simmons ranks players in order of their value in a trade--by his logic, Dwight Howard is the NBA's 2nd most untradeable player, because the Magic would only deal him for the NBA's most untradeable player, LeBron James. Tim Duncan is the 3rd most untradeable player, because the Spurs would only deal him for Howard or LeBron, and so on. While Simmons better explains his rationale in the article--which is definitely worth a read--the list tends to be highly subjective and admittedly theoretical, with some questionable conclusions. Positional differences aside, at the same age and pay, is David West really a better value than Caron Butler?, we ask Bullets Forever.
(The inconsistencies are easier to understand after Simmons raised the curtain this year, podcasting his annual list-making conversation with buddy Joe House--an entertaining, if not confidence-inspiring discussion. The pair lacked accurate salary data and made inconsistent logical leaps, while House's repeated capitulations to Simmons during the "debate" won't inspire Wilberforce-Huxley comparisons.)
However, buried within the piece are two small, interesting sidebars: Simmons' Top 15 Best and Top 25 Worst contracts in the NBA.
Generated as a side-product of the Top 50 list, these shorter rankings are somewhat more objective. By avoiding the qualitative baggage that Simmons and House talked through, these lists more purely represent good and bad values--and led us to two, quick observations.
1. Playing for the Wizards gets you paid
Well, as we no, not everyone got paid in D.C.
But while Butler's contract (Simmons' 13th best overall) is a model of fiscal restraint, Simmons names one current and five former Wiz kids among the top 20 worst contracts. Sure, Brian Cardinal (#20) got only a cup of coffee in the capital, but the careers of Ben Wallace (#7) and Bobby Simmons (#8) were launched by Washington, and Larry Hughes (#2) and Jared Jeffries (#11) played key roles on the breakthrough 2005 playoff team.
Still, the team isn't exactly the Bulls of the '90s--where guys like Luc Longley, Jud Buechler, and Jason Caffey parlayed their Jordan championships into big free agent contracts--so it's unclear what's so attractive about ex-Wizards. Their coating of magic dust?
2. Big pay + big man = Big mistake
Check out the names we've written in red: The NBA officially lists these guys as playing some center. Scroll back up, and you'll see four of Simmons' 15-best contracts belong to big men; meanwhile, Simmons believes that 15 of the 25 worst contracts in the league--60% of the list--belong to underachieving centers.
Set aside the rankings for a second; it doesn't matter if Larry Hughes is #2 or #12, so long as you agree that his contract is among the worst in the NBA. So if you're generally OK with the inclusion of the contracts listed above, it's not surprising that so many bad deals belong to big men; centers command the highest per-position salaries in the games and competition to get even a decent backup can lead to overbidding. Meanwhile, wing players and big guards tend to have some of the best values per contract, partly because of their relative abundance.
However, overbidding can't be the only reason that center valuations appear inflated. Is it because teams too quickly place a premium on halfway-effective big men? For example, the Celtics offered $42 million to Mark Blount after he had one good year, but aren't there plenty of NBDL, CBA, and European centers who would've provided 85% of Blount's contribution, but at 25% of the price?
Alternatively, maybe the bad contracts signify teams' willingness to roll the dice with centers, who tend to retain value longer than quick guards or athletic forwards. Does it make more sense to take a risk on a Nazr Mohammed, because some other GM who needs size can still be
Or do these contracts represent teams' desperation for big men in the Shaq/Duncan era? If we went back and looked in the late '80s and '90s, when teams focused on acquiring do-everything guards like Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson or versatile forwards like Scottie Pippen, would we see fewer centers being overvalued?
We prefer to end posts with answers, not questions, but appeal for some second opinions here. Perhaps someone can even point to a John Hollinger or Dave Berri post that's already explored this topic (but if so, we're not sure who to trust these days).
Labels: NBA, When did Bill Simmons become the dorky kid in the cafeteria
posted by Crucifictorious @ 18:30,
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Well, Simmons knows best!
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
So...a quick order of events:* Bill "Sports Guy" Simmons was getting knocked for a few bad draft predictions...so I stuck up for him.
* Steve Danley, burgeoning writer and ex-Penn basketball player, poked holes in a few top draft prospects...so I criticized him.
But now Simmons just validated Danley's "surprisingly good take" on various prospects in ESPN.com's own mock draft today (scroll down to Atlanta at no. 11):
Hmm.
Well, good for Danley--Simmons just ensured that he'd get a lot more eyeballs, if not ink. But I'm standing by what I wrote: The article may be well-structured and interesting. Heck, it's even insightful.
But doesn't change the fact that Danley's an egomaniacal madman out to rule the world.
(To be honest--I'm more than ok with Danley's "I would take these players" argument; it's the "I'd stay away from these guys" part that needed some refinement--or tacit acknowledgment that, warts and all, he's not in their league).
Labels: Steve Danley, When did Bill Simmons become the dorky kid in the cafeteria
posted by Anonymous @ 15:58,
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Dribbles on the Realests on Simmons, continued
Monday, June 25, 2007
Previously, on "We Rite Goode"
-Pedro Cerrano discovered that it's better to eat chicken than sacrifice it
-Crucifictorious explained his name to confused readers again
-Doctor Dribbles had beef with other bloggers
Yep, nothing new 'round these parts. On my end, I took issue with the Realests taking issue with the draft savvy of Bill "Sports Guy" Simmons. Not because of any great love for Simmons, but because picking a few examples out of years of coverage does not an accurate opinion make. Moreover, the included criticisms--such as Simmons somehow blew it by preferring Chris Paul to Deron Williams--were so lackluster that they undermined that blog's cherry-picked argument.
Still, I like the Realests and wanted to see if they were onto something, so looked carefully at one year of Simmons' thoughts on the draft. In a completely non-scientific process, I picked 2004 because we're far enough away from that draft to start separating the wheat from the chaff (who knows--Adam Morrison may still be a great player who had an awful rookie year), and Simmons already starts in the hole because he got Howard and Okafor wrong. Again, I'm using John Hollinger's rating system, where a PER of 15.0 equals an average NBA player, and taking into account where a player got picked versus the expectations/effusiveness of Simmons.Simmons 2004 wrap-up, with links to guys whose stories you may not know
Got right:
- Ben Gordon and Luol Deng to be good players, picks for Bulls in early first round
- Rafael Aurojo screamed El Busto for Raptors
- Sebastian Telfair as a "horrendous" pick as a lottery pick for Blazers
- Al Jefferson was best pick for Celtics at point in draft
- Pavel Prdzswsbqzpdne as the latest bad, giant stiff
- Back-to-back Blazer picks Viktor Khryapa and Sergei Monia as "either...one helluva platoon, or the Blazers just screwed up twice. I'm leaning towards the latter." The qualifier is both picks were late first-round, but neither's still with the Blazers, and Monia's already back in Russia (I think partly by choice, though).
- Delonte West as good pick for Celtics in late first-round
- Tony Allen as a decent rotation guy for the Celtics
- Andre Iguodala as a decent rotation guy for the 76ers. A bit wrong, because Iguodala's been far better than that, but at least Simmons thought he was a good pick.
- Kirk Snyder as a decent rotation guy
- Josh Childress as a bust. He hasn' t been a superstar, but at least he's been solid and worthy of a no. 6 pick.
- Devin Harris as overrated. Also not a superstar, but he's contributed to a top-tier team since Day 1 and had a great sophomore year, if a mediocre one in 2006-2007.
- As the Realests noted, Dwight Howard was a much stronger pick than Okafor, and Orlando made the right call after all.
- Shaun Livingston's upside wasn't worth the Clippers passing on Okafor for the now. Can't tell yet for sure, Simmons will probably be proven right over time.
- Robert Swift to be a bust. Could go either way. Doesn't hurt Simmons that Swift had to miss the entire year with injury.
- Was unimpressed by David Harrison, who has indeed been mediocre, but what do you expect of the last pick in the first round?
- Chris Duhon as a "better version" of Kevin Ollie. Maybe proven true over time, but Ollie has still had better individual years than any Duhon's put up so far.
In fact, let's compare Simmons--a guy who's by no means ESPN's NBA Draft "expert"--to the guy who was getting paid to be exactly that, Chad Ford. Obviously, Ford had a lot more opinions than Simmons and made tougher calls on guys that Simmons could afford to ignore or be unsure about.
Still, it's interesting to see how much worse Ford's hit rate was.
Ford's 2004 wrap-up, with links to guys whose stories you may not know
Got right:
- Kevin Martin as a solid player. Like Simmons on Iguodala, undersells Martin's value but at least it's recognized whereas Simmons didn't even know him. And as you'll see, Ford needs as much credit as we can find for him.
- Telfair was taken "way too high"
- Trevor Ariza as a second-round steal.
- Jameer Nelson and Anderson Varejao as solid picks for the Magic.
- Kris Humphries as a great fit in Utah. Have always been confused why Humphries isn't a better player, but that doesn't mean he's a good player waiting to break out.
- Dwight Howard as a worse pick for Magic than Okafor. Same logic as Simmons.
- Rafael Aruojo as a good pick.
- David Harrison as a good pick.
- Joshes Smith and Childress as "weird" choices in Atlanta. They may not be exactly what the Hawks needed at the time, but at least they've been productive for their draft positions. If Marvin and Shelden Williams had been similarly accomplished, the team would be a lot better.
- Pavel Pdolozinkne as the sleeper pick. Unless Ford meant that Pavel P would play like he was asleep, that's pretty damning.
- Luke Jackson as a great pick for Cavs. Until the last chunk of this season, he was already out of the league, although because of injury I believe.
- Robert Swift as better than Al Jefferson. While both players are still young, Jeff already is a solid starter and looking like the real deal, whereas Swift has struggled to get minutes and stay healthy.
- Sergei Monia as a great pick for the Blazers and a big miss for the Nets. As previously noted, this "big two who can shoot and has toughness" is already out of the league.
- Kirk Snyder as an immediate impact player in Utah. He wasn't, but did have a strong sophomore year in New Orleans/OK City, although fell off again with the Rockets. Close to being flat-out wrong.
- Romain Sato, the Spurs' late second-round pick, to probably make the team. He has yet to sniff any NBA roster, but hard to penalize speculation about a later-round player.
- Ford prefered some guy named Ricky Minard to Kevin Martin. As Minard was not the one averaging 20 ppg in the NBA last year, this almost goes under "wrong," although Ford claimed to like both players.
- Jackson Vroman was an "excellent" second-round pick. He made the NBA, which is more than some, but was picked pretty early in the 2nd round and better players like Trevor Ariza and Chris Duhon were still available.
- Tony Allen and Delonte West picks as a "little weird" for the Celtics. Also, Ford strongly disagreed with some statement by the Celtics or Ainge that I can't find. Specifically, Ford said that "the stuff about having Allen and West ranked as the second-best two guard and point guard in the draft is either some serious after-the-fact spin, or everyone in [the Celtics] scouting department needs to be fired. That's ridiculous." Well...I don't know who the Celtics had ahead of Allen and West (I'm guessing Ben Gordon and Devin Harris/Shaun Livingston) but looking at the competition and using Hollinger's PER, they really have been about the 2nd or 3rd best SG and PG out of the '04 draft (especially if you're excluding tweeners like Josh Smith, Iguodala, etc.). Notably, Allen was starting to have a great season before he went down. Might have been a little bit of salesmanship, but hardly a fireable offense.
- Iguodala as a "steal" at no. 9. He's certainly been one of the better players from the draft, but it's unclear whether he's the 4th best player in the class. This past year, Howard, Okafor, Deng, and Gordon put up better PERs, while Childress and Harris have had better three-year careers to this point.
- Peter "Party John" Ramos as an excellent second-round pick. Not so much, although it was only the second round.
Labels: basketball, hope "robert kleeman" is not code for Doc Dribbles, Never analyzing draft again, When did Bill Simmons become the dorky kid in the cafeteria
posted by Anonymous @ 00:16,
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Sir, I respectfully disagree
Sunday, June 24, 2007
I'm a little nervous. I've been blogging for all of two weeks, and now I want to call out a much more tenured blog. Is there some sort of protocol to follow? Should I just head to the Heights of Weehawken (which has got some great oxymoranic style going on, by the way) now and get it over with?If anything, I want to pick on lazy Pedro Cerrano, who's down in Cuba with Jobu and Michael Moore. But now I'm wading into it--albeit, in a polite way--with a heavy hitter like the Realests.
And I know The Realests. I like The Realests. Although he/they aren't friends of ours...and now probably won't be anytime soon.
It's this latest post--Sports Guy's Biggest Draft Blunders--that's got me riled. Kudos for looking...but really, what's the point?
Quoth the Realests:
But after repeatedly stating that Kevin Durant should be the No. 1 overall pick instead of Greg Oden, we can't help but call [Bill Simmons/the Sports Guy] out on some recent draft blunders he's made as an NBA columnist.The post goes on to lift previous entries by Simmons where he 1) Loves the Adam Morrison pick; 2) Mocks Utah for taking Deron Williams over Chris Paul; 3) Is excited that Joe Forte fell to the Celtics at #21; 4) Calls Orlando dumb for taking Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor; and 5) In the worst blunder, compares Yao Ming over Jay Williams to Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan, etc.
Let's just say he wouldn't make a much better GM than Danny Ainge based on his draft diaries from year's past.
Ok.
There are some iffy calls--but there's exactly one idiotic one, and that's bashing Yao in favor of J-Will. Simmons is right that Deron Williams is a worse player than Chris Paul; everyone got Morrison wrong; Emeka was the "safe bet" after a few years of bad high school selections (Kwame Brown, anyone?); and messing up at #21 isn't a huge mistake.
So even if the Realests are onto something (more on this in a sec), they make a pretty weak case for it. As others noted in response to the post, if that's the worst he's done in all his years blogging the draft (again, see below), Simmons must have a pretty good track record.
But there's a bigger bone to pick with the Realests: Selectively going through a guy's huge archive of stories to make him look bad. With Simmons, who was putting out 5,000 words three times a week for 10 years and writes volumes on the draft, it's not hard to find something. It took me all of 20 seconds. Keeping in mind the Hollinger rating system--where a PER of 15.00 is considered "average NBA player"--I looked at his 2005 draft blog, where he calls Francisco Garcia and Luther Head the year's two best picks. Err...they were OK, I guess, given that they were late-round selections. But neither can hold a candle to David Lee or Monta Ellis, who were picked even later in the draft and have way outperformed expectations.
However, looking quickly at Simmons' NBA Draft posts, you get the sense that he hits a lot more than he misses. Some say he just spouts the conventional wisdom, but he disagrees with a lot of the "draft experts" and is usually proven right over time. I'll come back later and use his 2004 NBA Draft write-up as an example.
Labels: Have I lost any cool points, NBA Draft, When did Bill Simmons become the dorky kid in the cafeteria
posted by Anonymous @ 14:26,
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