The known unknowns: Early questions and answers in the NBA
Thursday, December 6, 2007
We're a month into the season, and the We Rite Goode crew want to
Next up: What are the known unknowns so far this season?
Dirk. Carmelo. Zach. Carlos. Yao.
Five of the best basketball players in the NBA--so great that fans don't need last names to catch the references.
But the NBA's five best players, in that order?
See for yourself. That list appeared on ESPN one year ago today, using John Hollinger's PER statistic as an arbiter of success. Granted, a great PER doesn't automatically equate to basketball greatness, but debates over the stat's effectiveness aside, PER does confirm that the five were among the most brilliant offensive performers at that early point of the 2006-2007 season.
That wasn't quite the way the final list ended up, of course. Despite the hot start, Zach Randolph slid off his pace and wasn't picked for the All-Star game, and neither he nor Carlos Boozer were All-NBA. Eighty-two games makes for a long season, full of surprises and streaks; projecting performance on Dec. 6, be it this year or last, is somewhat arbitrary in that we're not even at the quarter-pole yet. Any NBA expert would caution against reading too much into just 16 or 17 games, which naturally never stops many smart fans who think with their hearts over their heads.Still, the season's first month can be a great bellwether for things to come. The aforementioned fab five went on to record PERs among the league's 20-best, highlighted by Dirk's 2nd place finish (behind an injured Dwyane Wade) and resulting MVP award. And we never need all year to see what's already obvious. So far in 2007, guys like Chris Kaman and Rudy Gay clearly have raised their games; meanwhile, a Kevin Garnett-less Minnesota doesn't have much game, as expected.
But most fans know that the Timberwolves stink and that Kaman doesn't (well, performance-wise; who knows if the Caveman believes in Old Spice). It's less understood, say, how the Bucks are challenging in the Central, beyond some vague sense that Yi Jianlian is actually playing like a No. 6 overall draft pick.
So we're going around the league with the help of a few of our friends, looking at some of the most intriguing teams--from the chumps to the champs--through the eyes of guys who watch more than the box scores. In this young season, we asked, what do we already know, and what should we have wondered in the first place?
No guarantee they all took us seriously, though.
* Note: Some responses written before Tuesday's and Wednesday's games.
THE DURANTS
Seth Kolloen, Enjoy the EnjoymentWhat off-season question has been answered so far?
Whether Kevin Durant could carry our offense. The answer, we quickly found out, was no. He's too inconsistent (shooting a dismal 39%) and he turns the ball over too much. Optimists thought he might be able to dominate the league, but he's mostly just dominated the ball. It's a learning year, though, no biggie.
What question should we have been asking?
Whether Kevin Durant would sabotage our defense. With Durant at the two, the Sonics' perimeter defense isn't NBA speed. When players drive by Durant, the Sonics don't have a shot blocker to stop them (unless Durant catches up--he's leading the team in blocks), and so they're allowing more points per game than every team except Golden State.
THE MISFITS
Mike K., Knickerblogger.net
What off-season question has been answered so far?
"How will Zach Randolph & Eddy Curry work together?" The answer is poorly. Randolph's rebounding is up, because he gets all the rebounds that Curry misses. However his shooting percentages are down because he's playing on the perimeter more. On defense, the pair is a disaster. Randolph is as bad a defender as they come, and together with Curry they've made the Knicks the second worst defensive team in the league.
What question should we have been asking?
"Will Isiah be around to celebrate his 4th year with the team?" Isiah was hired Dec. 22nd, 2003. Will he last until Dec. 22nd, 2007? The Knicks are 5-11, and the team is in disarray. It's just a matter of time, I hope.
Ben Go, Thank You IsiahWhat off-season question has been answered so far?
Will Luol Deng make the jump into the top tier of NBA players?
Sadly, no. Despite some hype this summer, Deng still finds it almost impossible to create his own shots and the hopes that he could possibly become the missing low-post option for the Bulls have been shot down in flames. Indeed, instead of improving on his promising 06-07 season, Deng has regressed to, or below, his 05-06 production levels in shooting percentage, rebounds, assists and FT percentage. Oh, and he's turning the ball over at the highest rate of his career. Though he's not technically in his contract year, call him the Anti-Vince Carter.
What question should we have been asking?
What the hell did John Paxson do to that voodoo priestess in the offseason?
John Hollinger can detail the Bulls' utter shititude, but he can't explain it. My own attempts to account for this dark abyss of a season left me grasping at the phantoms of Dante, Lao Tzu, and a Lacanian psychoanalyst from Slovenia. At this point, I'd be willing to sacrifice a live chicken if it would mean the pins get taken out of the Hinrich, Deng and Gordon dolls.
THE REBUILDERS
Tom, Indy Cornrows
What off-season question has been answered so far?
If Jamaal Tinsley would thrive under Jim O'Brien's offensive system after appearing to regress under Rick Carlisle. So far Tinsley has exceeded all expectations running the club for O'B. He's averaging 14.5 points and 8.6 assists. In addition, he's taken over several eventual wins down the stretch either scoring or setting up the game winning points. Tinsley's play is key since the off-season addition of Travis "Sarunas" Diener has been a bust so far.
What question should we have been asking?
Was Jermaine O'Neal's knee really 100% as he declared. J.O.'s had left knee issues since opening night and is just now rounding into playing shape. Any trade value he had has bottomed out, so now the Pacers have to hope he stays healthy and ups his production.
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree and Sports Gone South
What off-season question has been answered so far?
Can the Hawks win if they run? Yes, absolutely yes. This team has the potential to make the playoffs...provided they run. Steve Nash actually called them a more athletic team than the Suns after Atlanta's November victory over Phoenix. When they run, they win.
What question should we have been asking?
Is it legal to jury-rig those home-detention ankle bracelets to give off shocks if the wearer stops running below a sprint? 'Cause that's when the Hawks lose, when they start slowing down. If we can't do the Speed-esque ankle bracelets, how about just one around the neck of Mike Woodson, and whenever he calls for some plodding four-corners or isolation offense, he gets a zap. Run, Hawks, run!
THE INTRIGUINGLY AVERAGE
Jake Whitacre, Bullets Forever and Gilbertology
What off-season question has been answered so far?
Who would fill the gap at center with Etan Thomas sidelined. So far a combination of Brendan Haywood's (somewhat) improved play along with Andray Blatche's coming out party have made up for the loss of The Poet.
What question should we have been asking?
Why are we playing someone who just came off knee surgery 40 minutes a game? Why are we draining his knee so often? Why is he sitting this game out? Why is he sitting out again? What is that surgeon guy doing to Gilbert?!?
Frank, BrewHoop.com
What off-season question has been answered so far?
After five straight wins and sitting pretty at 7-4, we were happily believing that Mike Redd had indeed become an all-around player, Mo Williams had learned to be a real PG, our bench was reliable, the defense was better, Yi Jianlian was the truth, and Larry Krystkowiak had stolen all of Scott Skiles' mojo. But now at 8-8...well, we've had to re-ask many of those questions. Still, seeing Yi up close every night you can't help but think that he is going to be a special player, even if we have to wait another year or two for him to get there.
What question should we have been asking?
Could Bogut develop into the team's defensive catalyst? It was kind of assumed going into the year that Bogut would continue to be a solid but entirely unspectacular defender, with most of his improvement coming offensively. But while he's struggled at times to get involved on the offensive end, his defense has been a revelation. He's improved his rebound rate ( 16.4 vs. 15.2), more than quadrupled his shot-blocking (2.3 bpg) and generally acquitted himself well against some of the league's best bigs. He's already exceeded his blocked shot total from last year (35) in just 16 games while recording six games with four or more blocks. In his first two seasons he accomplished that feat once. Yet despite a generally improved effort on that end, the Bucks continue to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Can Bogut keep it up? And will his teammates step up as well?
THE PRETENDER
Howie, NBA Basketball and Other UnrelatednessWhat off-season question has been answered so far?
Is Nene made of tofu? Yes. Yes he is. While I like to be humble and modest, I just want to take this opportunity and say "I CALLED IT" that Mr. Hilario breaks down more than my 1992 LaserDisk player.
What question should we have been asking?
Why didn't we start calling much traveled end of the bench warmer Jelani "The Real"? As in, Jelani, "The Real" McCoy? Wait. Don't answer that.
THE CONTENDERS
Steve Weinman, formerly of Taking it to the Rack, now Celtics Blog and The Picksix: NBA Handicapping.
What off-season question has been answered so far?
The concerns about whether or not the trio of stars could work together have thus far been assuaged completely. The talking done by KG, Pierce and Ray about forming a close knit and cohesive unit was not lip service. The three have played very well together, getting the team off to a hot 15-2 start and picking each one another up when each has an off night. Perhaps even more importantly, they have made great efforts to not separate themselves from the other 12 men on the roster, establishing early on that, for better or for worse, this is a team.
What question should we have been asking?
How much can and will Tony Allen provide for this team? For all the concerns about the Celts' bench, TA has more potential to be explosive than anyone else on the unit. Sure, Eddie House loves to throw it up, and James Posey has proved to be a valuable cog, but TA (if he is indeed fully recovered from injury, which remains to be seen) has the skills to provide the entire package. He has the athleticism (somewhat hampered now thanks to last season's leg injury) to get to the rim with power as well as the work ethic and correct combo of size and speed to be an excellent perimeter defender and a solid rebounder at his position. Thus far this season, he has had much trouble getting back from injuries and as such hasn't found his niche yet. But if he can get back into the stride he had begun to hit before the injury last year, he legitimately could be a deal-breaker for this team.
Liston Von Culbertson, Introducing Liston
What off-season question has been answered so far?
The most significant off-season question that has been answered for me thus far is: Can you get into trouble for sending naked pictures of yourself to Gregg Popovich? The answer, unfortunately, is fuckin' A you can. I mean, all I wanted to do was see if I have an NBA-ready body. When I was in middle school my coach made me get naked in his office to see if I had what it to took to make it on his team, I just assumed they did the same things in the pros.
What question should we have been asking?
Why are they so much more professional and thorough in middle school then they are in the NBA? I mean, seriously, who hasn't gotten naked for their middle school basketball coach at one point or another?
[Given Liston's total disregard for the questions, we'll assume that--as always--the defending champs' only doubts are off-the-court distractions, like desperate housewives and exhibitionists--Cruc.]
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 02:41,
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Getting real: NBA Northwest Division preview
Friday, November 2, 2007
If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, go with us from the Atlantic--where nearly all the teams have hopes of a playoff push--to a division where a few teams have set their sights somewhat lower.
1. Utah Jazz
UtesFan89, Win Or Go Home
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: 48 or 49 wins max, then knocked out in the 2nd round. Booze and Deron play at All-Star level, but one of them gets snubbed due to either the depth of All-Star talent at their positions, or simply because they play for the Jazz. Okur regains his shot when he's not forced to play defense... and plays great defense but loses his shot when he does that. Larry H. Miller forces AK into Sloan's offense (which could force Sloan into post-season retirement). Brewer impresses, but Sloan finds some reason (youth?) to bench him. man-crush and Flop continue to get minutes (along with Giricek) over the youngsters, further proving that Sloan couldn't care less about the future and the kids' development. Hart and Price are adequate at times, but largely disappointing.
Reasoning: Booze and Deron remain All-Star caliber...but Sloan's love for man-crush will backfire when man-crush throws some games away (literally) at the end, as will the decision to play Giricek/Price/Hart over the defensively talented Brewer at the 2. He also hates youngsters, so Brewer, Almond, and Fesenko will get used to the bench, while Giricek, man-crush, and Flop Collins all get undeserved minutes. The youngsters' lack of development will hurt even more later in the season, when the worn-down starters need a break but Sloan doesn't trust his bench enough. Incorporating AK into the offense is a big mistake--watching him shoot jumpers is like being punched in the gut...repeatedly--and will cut shots for the better options. The average Hart and Price are a noticeable drop-off after Deron heads to the bench. In the playoffs, the Jazz have enough talent to spring a first-round upset, but aren't good enough to beat the top 3 yet, even if the Warriors' upset of the Mavs got them to the conference finals. Okur's shot plays hide-and-seek like it did last year, as he'll be worn out by the defensive effort to stop Yao or Duncan.
2. Denver Nuggets
Howie, NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Win 44 games, get 7th seed, lose to the Mavs in the first round and Nene misses 30 games.
Reasoning: Basically, this team still didn't get the memo that they really need reliable defense to get past the Spurs, Mavs, Suns (love Camby to death..he's but one man). If they can't figure it out, my hopes of them advancing are as high as someone coming to save the Saskatchewan citizens from the wild cocker spaniels running a muck (will someone please someone call the SPCA?!)
3. Portland Trailblazers
Zach Landres-Schnur, The Big Picture
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Win between 25 and 35 games. Miss the playoffs. Make fans beg for an MLB team in Portland.
Reasoning: The West is loaded, the top overall pick won't play a minute and more injuries are inevitable. It's gonna be B-Roy's team, and, alone, I don't think he can get them to .500.
4. Seattle Supersonics
Seth Kolloen, Enjoy the Enjoyment
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Try every legal maneuver possible to steal our team--but, at the same time, offer the best sports ticket in town.
Reasoning: If this is the last year we watch Sonics basketball, at least we're going out on a high note, with a twice-weekly performance by the most exciting teenage basketball player on the planet. 82 games (fingers-crossed) of Kevin Durant is enough to get even the most cynical fans excited.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Hall, TWolvesBlog.com
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Jefferson will make a smooth transition to the Western Conference, Foye will have a mostly-successful season as the starting point guard, McCants will be streaky, and Green will continue to demonstrate his “low basketball IQ.” The jury will remain out on Wittman.
Reasoning : Jefferson has historically been strong against the West, and Foye has the tools to be a dynamic point guard. McCants, since returning from injury, has been up and down on an almost-nightly basis, and I’m not confident about Wittman’s ability to improve Green’s decision-making skills. Finally, over Wittman’s career in this league, he’s shown no signs that he can be a successful head coach in the NBA.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Enjoy the Enjoyment, Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA preview, Portland Trailblazers, Seattle Supersonics, The Big Picture, TheHypeGuy.com, TWolvesBlog.com, Utah Jazz, Win or Go Home
posted by Crucifictorious @ 12:35,
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Wishful thinking: NBA Northwest Division preview
Thursday, November 1, 2007
If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, go with us from the Atlantic--where nearly all the teams have hopes of a playoff push--to a division where a few teams have set their sights somewhat lower.
1. Utah Jazz
UtesFan89, Win Or Go Home
What they need to do to make me happy: 53 or so wins would be nice, plus a repeat trip to the Western Conference Finals, maybe even a trip to the NBA Finals. Deron and Booze play at All-Star level, Okur finds the shot that abandoned him in the playoffs, AK learns that basketball is a team game and stops complaining, and Brewer develops into an above-average 2 and/or 3. Meanwhile, 'Sap develops a jumper, Almond and Fesenko replace man-crush (Harpring) and Flop (Collins) in the rotation, while Hart and Price solidify the back-up point guard spot.
Reasoning: Even though the Jazz might've over-performed last year, a step up would be nice (if unlikely). Deron and Booze are both All-Star caliber, while Brewer has impressed in the pre-season and he's easily the best defender at the 2. 'Sap's been working on his jumper this off-season, and if Almond develops this year, it could mean less of man-crush and more of a Brewer/Almond combo at the 2/3. Hart and Price improve after a bad pre-season and make it a bit less of a loss when Deron takes a breather. That's what they're paid to do.
2. Denver Nuggets
Howie, NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness
What they need to do to make me happy: Win 52 games, get the fifth seed, make it out of the 1st round, have Kenyon Martin become a even an inkling of his ghost-self, Melo winning the scoring chip and finally, solve the problem of overpopulation of pets in Saskatchewan
Reasoning: Saskatchewan pets are out of control! And uh--yeah-- don't look now, but Carmelo Anthony is close to suffering the KG T-Mac Curse of Round One Exit Oblivion or (KGTMCROEO for short). But with the boost of the FIBA win, getting to play with AI from the start, and having healthy teammates for more than 30mins month should bode well for the playoff hopes of Mr. Anthony.
3. Portland Trailblazers
Zach Landres-Schnur, The Big Picture
What they need to do to make me happy: Win 40 games, keep me thinking playoffs until the last week of the season and Brandon Roy needs to be an All-Star, averaging a 20+ points and 5+ rebounds. LaMarcus Aldridge and Channing Frye need to make me not long for Oden and Martell Webster needs to start playing like the Lottery pick that he was.
Reasoning: Making the playoffs is an unreasonable goal. In the loaded West, the Blazers won't be able to sneak in...they're just too many teams in front of them. So to see them compete and keep fans entertained until the end would be satisfying enough, with anything more being a bonus. And with B-Roy the returning ROY, I want more. I'm greedy. I don't give a fuck. Give me a triple-double every night.
* Zach wants the world to know: He's more of a B-Roy fan than a Trailblazer expert. But who can blame him?
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Hall, TWolvesBlog.com
What they need to do to make me happy: I honestly don't care about wins and losses for this season- I just want to see Al Jefferson establish himself as an All-Star caliber big man, Randy Foye to successfully take the reigns as the point guard of the future, Rashad McCants to have a breakout season, and Gerald Green to start making smarter decisions. Oh yeah, I also want Randy Wittman to show that he can actually coach in this league.
Reasoning: Wolves fans aren't expecting their team to be anywhere near playoff contention, so this season is all about making strides to improve the future situation in Minnesota. If our core of young players can have strong seasons, everyone will feel much, much better about the future of this team.
5. Seattle Sonics.
Seth Kolloen, Enjoy the Enjoyment
What they need to do to make me happy: Not move.
Reasoning: Yeah, I'm sure you're annoyed with at least one of your team's coach, GM, best player, or dance squad, but consider this: We Sonics fans are staring into the eyes of Death. And his name is Clay Bennett. Bennett's suing the city of Seattle to get out of his Key Arena lease--if he wins, kiss 40 years of living and dying with Seattle's first professional sports team goodbye. Makes that shitty trade you're lamenting look pretty insignificant by comparison, don't it.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Enjoy the Enjoyment, Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA preview, Portland Trailblazers, Seattle Supersonics, The Big Picture, TheHypeGuy.com, TWolvesBlog.com, Utah Jazz, Win or Go Home
posted by Crucifictorious @ 19:34,
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