The known unknowns: Early questions and answers in the NBA

We're a month into the season, and the We Rite Goode crew want to be responsible journalists actually blog about something, so we're revisiting a number of pressing questions, but answering them in total roundabout, WRG-style. We've already wondered why Kobe had yet to be traded and the Wizards were going with a 10-man roster.

Next up: What are the known unknowns so far this season?


Dirk. Carmelo. Zach. Carlos. Yao.

Five of the best basketball players in the NBA--so great that fans don't need last names to catch the references.

But the NBA's five best players, in that order?

See for yourself. That list appeared on ESPN one year ago today, using John Hollinger's PER statistic as an arbiter of success. Granted, a great PER doesn't automatically equate to basketball greatness, but debates over the stat's effectiveness aside, PER does confirm that the five were among the most brilliant offensive performers at that early point of the 2006-2007 season.

That wasn't quite the way the final list ended up, of course. Despite the hot start, Zach Randolph slid off his pace and wasn't picked for the All-Star game, and neither he nor Carlos Boozer were All-NBA. Eighty-two games makes for a long season, full of surprises and streaks; projecting performance on Dec. 6, be it this year or last, is somewhat arbitrary in that we're not even at the quarter-pole yet. Any NBA expert would caution against reading too much into just 16 or 17 games, which naturally never stops many smart fans who think with their hearts over their heads.

Still, the season's first month can be a great bellwether for things to come. The aforementioned fab five went on to record PERs among the league's 20-best, highlighted by Dirk's 2nd place finish (behind an injured Dwyane Wade) and resulting MVP award. And we never need all year to see what's already obvious. So far in 2007, guys like Chris Kaman and Rudy Gay clearly have raised their games; meanwhile, a Kevin Garnett-less Minnesota doesn't have much game, as expected.

But most fans know that the Timberwolves stink and that Kaman doesn't (well, performance-wise; who knows if the Caveman believes in Old Spice). It's less understood, say, how the Bucks are challenging in the Central, beyond some vague sense that Yi Jianlian is actually playing like a No. 6 overall draft pick.

So we're going around the league with the help of a few of our friends, looking at some of the most intriguing teams--from the chumps to the champs--through the eyes of guys who watch more than the box scores. In this young season, we asked, what do we already know, and what should we have wondered in the first place?

No guarantee they all took us seriously, though.
* Note: Some responses written before Tuesday's and Wednesday's games.

THE DURANTS
Seth Kolloen, Enjoy the Enjoyment

What off-season question has been answered so far?

Whether Kevin Durant could carry our offense. The answer, we quickly found out, was no. He's too inconsistent (shooting a dismal 39%) and he turns the ball over too much. Optimists thought he might be able to dominate the league, but he's mostly just dominated the ball. It's a learning year, though, no biggie.

What question should we have been asking?

Whether Kevin Durant would sabotage our defense. With Durant at the two, the Sonics' perimeter defense isn't NBA speed. When players drive by Durant, the Sonics don't have a shot blocker to stop them (unless Durant catches up--he's leading the team in blocks), and so they're allowing more points per game than every team except Golden State.


THE MISFITS


Mike K., Knickerblogger.net

What off-season question has been answered so far?

"How will Zach Randolph & Eddy Curry work together?" The answer is poorly. Randolph's rebounding is up, because he gets all the rebounds that Curry misses. However his shooting percentages are down because he's playing on the perimeter more. On defense, the pair is a disaster. Randolph is as bad a defender as they come, and together with Curry they've made the Knicks the second worst defensive team in the league.

What question should we have been asking?

"Will Isiah be around to celebrate his 4th year with the team?" Isiah was hired Dec. 22nd, 2003. Will he last until Dec. 22nd, 2007? The Knicks are 5-11, and the team is in disarray. It's just a matter of time, I hope.


Ben Go, Thank You Isiah

What off-season question has been answered so far?

Will Luol Deng make the jump into the top tier of NBA players?

Sadly, no. Despite some hype this summer, Deng still finds it almost impossible to create his own shots and the hopes that he could possibly become the missing low-post option for the Bulls have been shot down in flames. Indeed, instead of improving on his promising 06-07 season, Deng has regressed to, or below, his 05-06 production levels in shooting percentage, rebounds, assists and FT percentage. Oh, and he's turning the ball over at the highest rate of his career. Though he's not technically in his contract year, call him the Anti-Vince Carter.

What question should we have been asking?

What the hell did John Paxson do to that voodoo priestess in the offseason?

John Hollinger can detail the Bulls' utter shititude, but he can't explain it. My own attempts to account for this dark abyss of a season left me grasping at the phantoms of Dante, Lao Tzu, and a Lacanian psychoanalyst from Slovenia. At this point, I'd be willing to sacrifice a live chicken if it would mean the pins get taken out of the Hinrich, Deng and Gordon dolls.

THE REBUILDERS


Tom, Indy Cornrows

What off-season question has been answered so far?

If Jamaal Tinsley would thrive under Jim O'Brien's offensive system after appearing to regress under Rick Carlisle. So far Tinsley has exceeded all expectations running the club for O'B. He's averaging 14.5 points and 8.6 assists. In addition, he's taken over several eventual wins down the stretch either scoring or setting up the game winning points. Tinsley's play is key since the off-season addition of Travis "Sarunas" Diener has been a bust so far.

What question should we have been asking?

Was Jermaine O'Neal's knee really 100% as he declared. J.O.'s had left knee issues since opening night and is just now rounding into playing shape. Any trade value he had has bottomed out, so now the Pacers have to hope he stays healthy and ups his production.



Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree and Sports Gone South

What off-season question has been answered so far?

Can the Hawks win if they run? Yes, absolutely yes. This team has the potential to make the playoffs...provided they run. Steve Nash actually called them a more athletic team than the Suns after Atlanta's November victory over Phoenix. When they run, they win.

What question should we have been asking?

Is it legal to jury-rig those home-detention ankle bracelets to give off shocks if the wearer stops running below a sprint? 'Cause that's when the Hawks lose, when they start slowing down. If we can't do the Speed-esque ankle bracelets, how about just one around the neck of Mike Woodson, and whenever he calls for some plodding four-corners or isolation offense, he gets a zap. Run, Hawks, run!

THE INTRIGUINGLY AVERAGE


Jake Whitacre, Bullets Forever and Gilbertology

What off-season question has been answered so far?

Who would fill the gap at center with Etan Thomas sidelined. So far a combination of Brendan Haywood's (somewhat) improved play along with Andray Blatche's coming out party have made up for the loss of The Poet.

What question should we have been asking?

Why are we playing someone who just came off knee surgery 40 minutes a game? Why are we draining his knee so often? Why is he sitting this game out? Why is he sitting out again? What is that surgeon guy doing to Gilbert?!?



Frank, BrewHoop.com

What off-season question has been answered so far?

After five straight wins and sitting pretty at 7-4, we were happily believing that Mike Redd had indeed become an all-around player, Mo Williams had learned to be a real PG, our bench was reliable, the defense was better, Yi Jianlian was the truth, and Larry Krystkowiak had stolen all of Scott Skiles' mojo. But now at 8-8...well, we've had to re-ask many of those questions. Still, seeing Yi up close every night you can't help but think that he is going to be a special player, even if we have to wait another year or two for him to get there.

What question should we have been asking?

Could Bogut develop into the team's defensive catalyst? It was kind of assumed going into the year that Bogut would continue to be a solid but entirely unspectacular defender, with most of his improvement coming offensively. But while he's struggled at times to get involved on the offensive end, his defense has been a revelation. He's improved his rebound rate ( 16.4 vs. 15.2), more than quadrupled his shot-blocking (2.3 bpg) and generally acquitted himself well against some of the league's best bigs. He's already exceeded his blocked shot total from last year (35) in just 16 games while recording six games with four or more blocks. In his first two seasons he accomplished that feat once. Yet despite a generally improved effort on that end, the Bucks continue to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Can Bogut keep it up? And will his teammates step up as well?


THE PRETENDER

Howie, NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness

What off-season question has been answered so far?

Is Nene made of tofu? Yes. Yes he is. While I like to be humble and modest, I just want to take this opportunity and say "I CALLED IT" that Mr. Hilario breaks down more than my 1992 LaserDisk player.

What question should we have been asking?

Why didn't we start calling much traveled end of the bench warmer Jelani "The Real"? As in, Jelani, "The Real" McCoy? Wait. Don't answer that.


THE CONTENDERS


Steve Weinman, formerly of Taking it to the Rack, now Celtics Blog and The Picksix: NBA Handicapping.

What off-season question has been answered so far?

The concerns about whether or not the trio of stars could work together have thus far been assuaged completely. The talking done by KG, Pierce and Ray about forming a close knit and cohesive unit was not lip service. The three have played very well together, getting the team off to a hot 15-2 start and picking each one another up when each has an off night. Perhaps even more importantly, they have made great efforts to not separate themselves from the other 12 men on the roster, establishing early on that, for better or for worse, this is a team.

What question should we have been asking?

How much can and will Tony Allen provide for this team? For all the concerns about the Celts' bench, TA has more potential to be explosive than anyone else on the unit. Sure, Eddie House loves to throw it up, and James Posey has proved to be a valuable cog, but TA (if he is indeed fully recovered from injury, which remains to be seen) has the skills to provide the entire package. He has the athleticism (somewhat hampered now thanks to last season's leg injury) to get to the rim with power as well as the work ethic and correct combo of size and speed to be an excellent perimeter defender and a solid rebounder at his position. Thus far this season, he has had much trouble getting back from injuries and as such hasn't found his niche yet. But if he can get back into the stride he had begun to hit before the injury last year, he legitimately could be a deal-breaker for this team.



Liston Von Culbertson, Introducing Liston

What off-season question has been answered so far?

The most significant off-season question that has been answered for me thus far is: Can you get into trouble for sending naked pictures of yourself to Gregg Popovich? The answer, unfortunately, is fuckin' A you can. I mean, all I wanted to do was see if I have an NBA-ready body. When I was in middle school my coach made me get naked in his office to see if I had what it to took to make it on his team, I just assumed they did the same things in the pros.

What question should we have been asking?

Why are they so much more professional and thorough in middle school then they are in the NBA? I mean, seriously, who hasn't gotten naked for their middle school basketball coach at one point or another?

[Given Liston's total disregard for the questions, we'll assume that--as always--the defending champs' only doubts are off-the-court distractions, like desperate housewives and exhibitionists--Cruc.]

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posted by Crucifictorious @ 02:41, ,


Getting real: NBA Central Division preview

If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, finish off our team-by-team previews with a look at the mighty midwest match up between Motown and the Second City...to say nothing of a lurking LeBron.

1. Chicago Bulls
Ben Go, Thank You Isiah

Forget what I want them to do; here's what they will do: Happily, the Bulls should meet most of my great expectations. They will win 55 games. Luol Deng will make the All-Star team (not a lot of great 3s in the East), but Ben Gordon won't (a glut of good 1s and 2s.) As for the playoffs, sure, what the hell, they'll make the Finals.

Reasoning:
Based on their points scored and points against, the Bulls should have won 55 games last year. Defensively, the Bulls match up well against the Celtics, with their lone Achilles' heel, the under-sized Ben Gordon, unlikely to be outmuscled by Rondo. (Oh, and by the way, Posey still sucks.) The Pistons, specifically Billups, remain a threat in that regard, but sooner or later, youth demands to be served. Unless Lebron goes absolutely, Jordanesquely apeshit (feasible, but not assured), I like Chicago.

As for the Finals, for now, I'd just be happy to be there. For now.

2. Detroit Pistons
Natalie Sitto
, Need 4 Sheed

Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: The Pistons will win 52 games, and end up Eastern Conference Champs. Jason Maxiell will turn heads this season and Rasheed Wallace will lead the league in technical fouls. Flip Saunders will be considered a good coach who has difficulty making adjustments in the Playoffs.

That said, don’t count them out.

Reasoning: This team has made the Eastern Conference Finals the past five seasons. Their core is still together, but nothing significant has changed to put them over the top, unless the Pistons youth astonish us.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavalier,
Yaysports!
[Editor's note: The Cavalier was tied up at the last-minute with a certain movie he's working on, so gave us the OK to just adapt an earlier NBA preview].

Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: 51 wins, but we’re apathetic about this team and the season. While personnel is a problem, the bigger problem was getting an offensive system in place, which could’ve been done but wasn’t (As far as we can tell so far).

Reasoning: Publicly, the Cavaliers want to win a championship. Privately (and none of them will say it out loud or to each other), they’ll feel lucky to get back to the Finals. They had an easy road, the only good (ie watchable) basketball they played all year was the Spurs game in November and the Pistons series. But as always, if LeBron decides he wants to go hardcore, all predictions are voided. The man can do anything when he decides he wants it, and everyone else falls in line.

4. Indiana Pacers
Cornrows
, Indy Cornrows

Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Win 42 games and sit on the fence of the playoffs. Health issues have been an annual problem, so a few key injuries into the equation keeps the Pacers in the NBA's no man's land.

Reasoning: Jim O'Brien has had a great impact on the culture and style of play already. But they will run at a talent deficit in many games, so if a few injuries pop up to further increase that deficit, they can still play hard but end up not winning enough to make the playoffs now that the Eastern Conference has more contenders than playoff spots available.

5. Milwaukee Bucks
Frank
, BrewHoop.com

Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Win 40 games, battle for the 8 spot and get annihilated in the first round. If they get there.

Reasoning: The Bucks have plenty of young talent, and the return of Simmons and Mason should provide a veteran boost. But while Mo, Bogut, Villanueva and Yi all have star "potential," at least two of them will need to get there in a hurry if the Bucks want to become real contenders in the improved East. Combine the uncertainty of the team's youth with the continued threat that Bobby Simmons' foot will fall off, and it's clear Krystkowiak will be earning his paycheck if the Bucks return to the postseason.

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posted by Crucifictorious @ 08:23, ,


Wishful thinking: NBA Central Division preview

If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, finish off our team-by-team previews with a look at the mighty midwest match up between Motown and the Second City...to say nothing of a lurking LeBron.

1-T. Chicago Bulls
Ben Go, Thank You Isiah

What they need to do to make me happy: Win 55 games and the Central Division. Should they meet in the Playoffs, finally vanquish (and preferably humiliate) the Detroit Pistons. Make the NBA Finals. Ben Gordon and Luol Deng make the All-Star team.

Reasoning: Last year, the Bulls won 49 games, and with their young core maturing, no significant personnel losses and the addition of Joakim Noah, improvement is to be expected, nay, demanded. Another playoff loss to the Pistons would be devastating, casting into serious doubt the patient (not to say pussified) strategy of GM John Paxson in failing to trade for a bona-fide All Star. I currently endorse this strategy, but another bouncing by Sheed and the boys would send me careening wildly into mindless, petty-resentment-filled blatherings, a la Jay Marriotti.

1-T. Detroit Pistons
Natalie Sitto
, Need 4 Sheed

What they need to do to make me happy: The Pistons need to win at least 55 games, and the NBA Championship. Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell will have breakout seasons. Tayshaun Prince will finally make the All Star team. Sheed and Flip Saunders are going to become such good friends that they are going to be roomies on the road.

Reasoning: The Pistons have had the team and the pieces in place to win the NBA Championship each season since they won it in 2004. Sheed, Rip, Chauncey, Tayshaun and McDyess are a hell of a starting five no matter who you ask and the bench is more solid than in seasons past.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavalier,
Yaysports!
[Editor's note: The Cavalier was tied up at the last-minute with a certain movie he's working on, so gave us the OK to just adapt an earlier NBA preview].

What they need to do to make me happy: 51 wins, but perhaps they could also give over 60% effort for more than one playoff series - that way they’ll be better AND I won’t have to boycott watching them for over half the season like 06-07.

Reasoning: I’m not entirely thrilled to have the same team back, but I’m also realistic enough to know there wasn’t much to be done. Danny Ferry has shown that he’s not going to just go spend the MLE and sign guys like Sasha Pavlovic and Anderson Varejao simply to appease message board posters, bloggers, and ESPN columnists. They’ll look to improve on last year through improvement of young players (LBJ, Boobie Gibson) and the idea of having a team that knows each other, ie chemistry.

4-T. Indiana Pacers
Cornrows
, Indy Cornrows

What they need to do to make me happy: Win 45 games, make the playoffs and deliver at least a competitive playoff series. Also, I'd like to see a strong effort consistently and a more entertaining style of play, with Jermaine O'Neal staying healthy and playing at an All-Star level.

Reasoning: Despite all of the drama last year, there was enough talent to be a playoff team until several injuries destroyed those chances. Jim O'Brien brings an uptempo style that will improve the pace of play and then entertainment value. If Marquis Daniels stays healthy, he will stun people this year and be a strong Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

4-T. Milwaukee Bucks
Frank
, BrewHoop.com

What they need to do to make me happy: The maturing triumvirate of Mo Williams, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut leads the Bucks to 45 wins and the second round, shocking all the experts who do their best to ignore the Bucks' existence. Larry Krystkowiak brainwashes the Bucks into playing defense, rebounding from time to time and getting their bigs more involved offensively. Yi Jianlian shows flashes of greatness while managing to hold his own on both ends.

Reasoning: Getting Redd, Mo, Bogut, Bobby Simmons, and Charlie Villanueva healthy along with the additions of Desmond Mason and Yi means the Bucks can actually field a team this year. The other Coach K looks like he could be a less ornery, slightly less bald Scott Skiles, which is exactly what a team as defensively atrocious as the Bucks needs. Andrew Bogut looks ready to break into 15/10, marginal all-star territory.

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posted by Crucifictorious @ 16:11, ,


Re: "If you could be GM of any lottery team..."

My favorite part of the EA Sports games isn't the games. Honestly, I never get the guys who camp in front of the TV for weeks on end, playing Madden by themselves. Doesn't beating the computer by 30 get old?

Instead, it's building a team--growing the Raiders into a juggernaut, or transforming the Charlotte Bobcats into contenders--that hooks me (or at least did, back when I had the time).

So of course, I'm fascinated by this very interesting post by Steve Weinman over at Taking it to the Rack. (Ok, full disclosure: Steve kindly spent the entire post answering my question: "Pick among last year's non-playoff teams and build a contender within three years.") His choice--the Bobcats, the newest team in the L, but still the only franchise never to even sniff the playoffs, let alone make a run. Not the first team most of us would pick.

But you know what? Steve's buying Charlotte stock at the right time. The Bobcats have 1) a young, talented core; 2) aren't in the West, which should continue to be awful competitive across our self-imposed three-year window; and 3) have the three offensive cogs that most good teams need to compete (Gerald "next MJ" Wallace, Jason "next MJ" Richardson, and Emeka Okafor).

However, who takes the shot at the end of the game? Wallace? Every good team needs that closer and I don't know who's it on the 'Cats. Guess Sam Vincent's got three years to figure it out.

Other nice chips include Sean May (who's been great, if injured), sweet-shooting Matt Carroll, and sweet-hair-product-using Walter Hermann.

Of course, the team's backcourt is weighted down by bricklayers Adam "Che" Morrison and Ray Felton. Steve's plan to move Morrison is a great, if fanciful, idea, but he oversells Felton, whose 39% career shooting percentage terrifies me, and who didn't really improve between his rookie and sophomore years, other than boosting his PT.

And I don't buy that Gilbert Arenas or Shawn Marion would relocate to Charlotte. (Steve, have you been to Charlotte? Place is sleepy. I'm getting tired just thinking about it.) If anything, if the Bobcats want an impact free agent, they should hope that a local college legend--maybe an aging Antawn Jamison type or even a Carlos Boozer--comes home to relive glory days.

Still, a solid selection. Which shames me...in asking the question, I hadn't really though through who I'd choose. Also, like most bloggers, it's not as if I have any special basketball knowledge. Sure, I can pick others apart no problem. But I'm no expert on the L. The further I get away from high school basketball camp, the less I know.

So, relying on my mere fandom as a guide, the Hornets are the easy answer, the Celtics are the real easy answer, and--since Steve's removed Portland from discussion, while another commentator argued for the Hawks--I guess I'm taking...the Bucks. Almost unbelievably so. But perhaps it was fated to be.

A few caveats though. Namely, I hate half their roster.

Desmond Mason isn't worth $5M a year. Bobby Simmons also isn't worth $5M a year--which makes his $9M salary some kind of crime. Royal Ivey is cheap at $750k, but isn't anything special on D and couldn't score at the Bunny Ranch. And so on.

That said, the Bucks hook me because of one guy: Andrew Bogut. He's a more athletic, less dominant Yao Ming. What can I say--ever since Hakeem, I've loved the good-passing big man...and Bogut is downright Walton-esque at times. He's still young enough to build around and is clearly an inspirational figure--you don't see Etan Thomas penning a letter to Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, do you? Guys flock to Phoenix to play with Steve Nash. The Euros will courra to 'Kee to commiserate with their truth-talker.

(Look, I don't know if I'd like Bogut, the person. But as a young big, you could do a lot worse).



Admit it, NBA fans: The buzzworthy comments. The hairstyle. The blog fans. Mark my words, this year will be like the Takeover for Bogut. Only, it won't be, because Bogut hates dealing with the media. But if I was the GM, I'd brand the team around his cuss-worthy image. Market the heck out of his Australian connection--maybe work out a deal with Star TV to show the games overseas, if there isn't one already.

Anyway, it's not like Bogut's the only good chip for the Bucks. Their strength is currently in the backcourt, although Michael Redd is probably overpaid (sense a theme?), and so is Mo Williams. But Redd is about a solid a two-guard in the L and, as a great shooter in his prime, he shouldn't really diminish in value the next few years. Williams' performance is parabolically improving, so who knows--perhaps the Bucks get a few vintage Jason Terry years out of him. Charlie Bell seems like a total flake, but at $3M a year for a decent backup guard, he'd be a good bargaining chip if it didn't fly.

Going back up front, I like Charlie Villanueva a lot, actually. Scores over everybody, any which way. Yet clearly, a guy who needs motivation to play well so I'd start badmouthing him to sites like The Bratwurst; when he's in the crib, ego-googling, he'll be stunned by the amount of renewed draft-bashing ("#7 in '05? Over David Lee??"), TJ Ford-praise-singing ("Raps completely won that deal"), and misidentified C. Villanueva-bashing ("What an awful gopher ball to Nate McLouth--guy can't pitch a lick").

And maybe take out a billboard challenging his manhood, just to be on the safe side.

Then, there's a guy you may have heard about: Chairman Yi. The kid is taking a lot of flack. And you know what? He's not the next Nowitzki or Gasol. The guy is 22, let's not pretend otherwise. We know the Chinese athletic association is all about age-fixing. And 19 or 22, he looked real bad in summer league. If scuttlebutt has it, Yaroslav Korolev may not long set the standard for recent lottery busts.

But...what if...he's a contributor?

Is it that hard to imagine? Yao was 22 when he came over. Toni Kukoc was 25. Heck, Arvydas Sabonis was 53. All made the move--and thrived--and certainly none had the NBA-quality athleticism of Yi. He looked good against the Americans at the 2006 World's, too.

I'm holding out hope.

So: Bogut, Villanueva, Simmons, Redd, and Williams as my starting five. Gadzuric, Yi, Mason, and Bell off the bench.

Two years for that young core to gel--for Bogut's numbers to rise to 17/10. For Charlie V to emerge as a solid 18 ppg scorer. For Yi to become a more athletic Detlef Schrempf. For Mason's contract to expire and be replaced by a Marquis Daniels-type. For Redd to remain a dead-eye gunner.

Knock on wood, I like them to emerge from the 2009/2010 East. They'll just have to get by those pesky Bobcats first.

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posted by Anonymous @ 21:24, ,


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