The known unknowns: Early questions and answers in the NBA
Thursday, December 6, 2007
We're a month into the season, and the We Rite Goode crew want to
Next up: What are the known unknowns so far this season?
Dirk. Carmelo. Zach. Carlos. Yao.
Five of the best basketball players in the NBA--so great that fans don't need last names to catch the references.
But the NBA's five best players, in that order?
See for yourself. That list appeared on ESPN one year ago today, using John Hollinger's PER statistic as an arbiter of success. Granted, a great PER doesn't automatically equate to basketball greatness, but debates over the stat's effectiveness aside, PER does confirm that the five were among the most brilliant offensive performers at that early point of the 2006-2007 season.
That wasn't quite the way the final list ended up, of course. Despite the hot start, Zach Randolph slid off his pace and wasn't picked for the All-Star game, and neither he nor Carlos Boozer were All-NBA. Eighty-two games makes for a long season, full of surprises and streaks; projecting performance on Dec. 6, be it this year or last, is somewhat arbitrary in that we're not even at the quarter-pole yet. Any NBA expert would caution against reading too much into just 16 or 17 games, which naturally never stops many smart fans who think with their hearts over their heads.Still, the season's first month can be a great bellwether for things to come. The aforementioned fab five went on to record PERs among the league's 20-best, highlighted by Dirk's 2nd place finish (behind an injured Dwyane Wade) and resulting MVP award. And we never need all year to see what's already obvious. So far in 2007, guys like Chris Kaman and Rudy Gay clearly have raised their games; meanwhile, a Kevin Garnett-less Minnesota doesn't have much game, as expected.
But most fans know that the Timberwolves stink and that Kaman doesn't (well, performance-wise; who knows if the Caveman believes in Old Spice). It's less understood, say, how the Bucks are challenging in the Central, beyond some vague sense that Yi Jianlian is actually playing like a No. 6 overall draft pick.
So we're going around the league with the help of a few of our friends, looking at some of the most intriguing teams--from the chumps to the champs--through the eyes of guys who watch more than the box scores. In this young season, we asked, what do we already know, and what should we have wondered in the first place?
No guarantee they all took us seriously, though.
* Note: Some responses written before Tuesday's and Wednesday's games.
THE DURANTS
Seth Kolloen, Enjoy the EnjoymentWhat off-season question has been answered so far?
Whether Kevin Durant could carry our offense. The answer, we quickly found out, was no. He's too inconsistent (shooting a dismal 39%) and he turns the ball over too much. Optimists thought he might be able to dominate the league, but he's mostly just dominated the ball. It's a learning year, though, no biggie.
What question should we have been asking?
Whether Kevin Durant would sabotage our defense. With Durant at the two, the Sonics' perimeter defense isn't NBA speed. When players drive by Durant, the Sonics don't have a shot blocker to stop them (unless Durant catches up--he's leading the team in blocks), and so they're allowing more points per game than every team except Golden State.
THE MISFITS
Mike K., Knickerblogger.net
What off-season question has been answered so far?
"How will Zach Randolph & Eddy Curry work together?" The answer is poorly. Randolph's rebounding is up, because he gets all the rebounds that Curry misses. However his shooting percentages are down because he's playing on the perimeter more. On defense, the pair is a disaster. Randolph is as bad a defender as they come, and together with Curry they've made the Knicks the second worst defensive team in the league.
What question should we have been asking?
"Will Isiah be around to celebrate his 4th year with the team?" Isiah was hired Dec. 22nd, 2003. Will he last until Dec. 22nd, 2007? The Knicks are 5-11, and the team is in disarray. It's just a matter of time, I hope.
Ben Go, Thank You IsiahWhat off-season question has been answered so far?
Will Luol Deng make the jump into the top tier of NBA players?
Sadly, no. Despite some hype this summer, Deng still finds it almost impossible to create his own shots and the hopes that he could possibly become the missing low-post option for the Bulls have been shot down in flames. Indeed, instead of improving on his promising 06-07 season, Deng has regressed to, or below, his 05-06 production levels in shooting percentage, rebounds, assists and FT percentage. Oh, and he's turning the ball over at the highest rate of his career. Though he's not technically in his contract year, call him the Anti-Vince Carter.
What question should we have been asking?
What the hell did John Paxson do to that voodoo priestess in the offseason?
John Hollinger can detail the Bulls' utter shititude, but he can't explain it. My own attempts to account for this dark abyss of a season left me grasping at the phantoms of Dante, Lao Tzu, and a Lacanian psychoanalyst from Slovenia. At this point, I'd be willing to sacrifice a live chicken if it would mean the pins get taken out of the Hinrich, Deng and Gordon dolls.
THE REBUILDERS
Tom, Indy Cornrows
What off-season question has been answered so far?
If Jamaal Tinsley would thrive under Jim O'Brien's offensive system after appearing to regress under Rick Carlisle. So far Tinsley has exceeded all expectations running the club for O'B. He's averaging 14.5 points and 8.6 assists. In addition, he's taken over several eventual wins down the stretch either scoring or setting up the game winning points. Tinsley's play is key since the off-season addition of Travis "Sarunas" Diener has been a bust so far.
What question should we have been asking?
Was Jermaine O'Neal's knee really 100% as he declared. J.O.'s had left knee issues since opening night and is just now rounding into playing shape. Any trade value he had has bottomed out, so now the Pacers have to hope he stays healthy and ups his production.
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree and Sports Gone South
What off-season question has been answered so far?
Can the Hawks win if they run? Yes, absolutely yes. This team has the potential to make the playoffs...provided they run. Steve Nash actually called them a more athletic team than the Suns after Atlanta's November victory over Phoenix. When they run, they win.
What question should we have been asking?
Is it legal to jury-rig those home-detention ankle bracelets to give off shocks if the wearer stops running below a sprint? 'Cause that's when the Hawks lose, when they start slowing down. If we can't do the Speed-esque ankle bracelets, how about just one around the neck of Mike Woodson, and whenever he calls for some plodding four-corners or isolation offense, he gets a zap. Run, Hawks, run!
THE INTRIGUINGLY AVERAGE
Jake Whitacre, Bullets Forever and Gilbertology
What off-season question has been answered so far?
Who would fill the gap at center with Etan Thomas sidelined. So far a combination of Brendan Haywood's (somewhat) improved play along with Andray Blatche's coming out party have made up for the loss of The Poet.
What question should we have been asking?
Why are we playing someone who just came off knee surgery 40 minutes a game? Why are we draining his knee so often? Why is he sitting this game out? Why is he sitting out again? What is that surgeon guy doing to Gilbert?!?
Frank, BrewHoop.com
What off-season question has been answered so far?
After five straight wins and sitting pretty at 7-4, we were happily believing that Mike Redd had indeed become an all-around player, Mo Williams had learned to be a real PG, our bench was reliable, the defense was better, Yi Jianlian was the truth, and Larry Krystkowiak had stolen all of Scott Skiles' mojo. But now at 8-8...well, we've had to re-ask many of those questions. Still, seeing Yi up close every night you can't help but think that he is going to be a special player, even if we have to wait another year or two for him to get there.
What question should we have been asking?
Could Bogut develop into the team's defensive catalyst? It was kind of assumed going into the year that Bogut would continue to be a solid but entirely unspectacular defender, with most of his improvement coming offensively. But while he's struggled at times to get involved on the offensive end, his defense has been a revelation. He's improved his rebound rate ( 16.4 vs. 15.2), more than quadrupled his shot-blocking (2.3 bpg) and generally acquitted himself well against some of the league's best bigs. He's already exceeded his blocked shot total from last year (35) in just 16 games while recording six games with four or more blocks. In his first two seasons he accomplished that feat once. Yet despite a generally improved effort on that end, the Bucks continue to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Can Bogut keep it up? And will his teammates step up as well?
THE PRETENDER
Howie, NBA Basketball and Other UnrelatednessWhat off-season question has been answered so far?
Is Nene made of tofu? Yes. Yes he is. While I like to be humble and modest, I just want to take this opportunity and say "I CALLED IT" that Mr. Hilario breaks down more than my 1992 LaserDisk player.
What question should we have been asking?
Why didn't we start calling much traveled end of the bench warmer Jelani "The Real"? As in, Jelani, "The Real" McCoy? Wait. Don't answer that.
THE CONTENDERS
Steve Weinman, formerly of Taking it to the Rack, now Celtics Blog and The Picksix: NBA Handicapping.
What off-season question has been answered so far?
The concerns about whether or not the trio of stars could work together have thus far been assuaged completely. The talking done by KG, Pierce and Ray about forming a close knit and cohesive unit was not lip service. The three have played very well together, getting the team off to a hot 15-2 start and picking each one another up when each has an off night. Perhaps even more importantly, they have made great efforts to not separate themselves from the other 12 men on the roster, establishing early on that, for better or for worse, this is a team.
What question should we have been asking?
How much can and will Tony Allen provide for this team? For all the concerns about the Celts' bench, TA has more potential to be explosive than anyone else on the unit. Sure, Eddie House loves to throw it up, and James Posey has proved to be a valuable cog, but TA (if he is indeed fully recovered from injury, which remains to be seen) has the skills to provide the entire package. He has the athleticism (somewhat hampered now thanks to last season's leg injury) to get to the rim with power as well as the work ethic and correct combo of size and speed to be an excellent perimeter defender and a solid rebounder at his position. Thus far this season, he has had much trouble getting back from injuries and as such hasn't found his niche yet. But if he can get back into the stride he had begun to hit before the injury last year, he legitimately could be a deal-breaker for this team.
Liston Von Culbertson, Introducing Liston
What off-season question has been answered so far?
The most significant off-season question that has been answered for me thus far is: Can you get into trouble for sending naked pictures of yourself to Gregg Popovich? The answer, unfortunately, is fuckin' A you can. I mean, all I wanted to do was see if I have an NBA-ready body. When I was in middle school my coach made me get naked in his office to see if I had what it to took to make it on his team, I just assumed they did the same things in the pros.
What question should we have been asking?
Why are they so much more professional and thorough in middle school then they are in the NBA? I mean, seriously, who hasn't gotten naked for their middle school basketball coach at one point or another?
[Given Liston's total disregard for the questions, we'll assume that--as always--the defending champs' only doubts are off-the-court distractions, like desperate housewives and exhibitionists--Cruc.]
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 02:41,
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Getting real: NBA Southeast Division preview
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, take a spin with stars like Gil, Dwyane, and Dwight.
1. Orlando Magic (Formerly The Orlando Tragic)
Black and Blue Jor, The Howeva Files
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: I forsee good things, like winning the Southeast Conference with a 48-34 record. Yes, really.
Reasoning for above: The Magic did something unheard of in their crappy non-existent history: they actually retained a superstar. Not only did they resign Dwight Howard, they somehow managed to pry another star in Rashard Lewis from the Sonics and retained all of their other key players. Yes, Darko and Grant Hill, I said KEY players...not a chronically injured sub and a backup power forward. Couple that with a possible emergence of Jameer Nelson and you have the makings of a very solid team. By solid, I mean they are still something the Western Conference wipes their asses with, but solid nonetheless.
2. Washington Wizards
JakeTheSnake, Bullets Forever
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Struggle out of the gates but then pick up steam, play marginally better defense and end up playing just above .500 ball for the season putting them somewhere between 4th and 8th in the conference.
Reasoning: If the preseason has been any indication (which it probably hasn't) Gilbert is still trying to get into a rhythm and the team will have to feel things out while adjusting to not having Etan Thomas' presence inside. After struggling throughout November and into December, Agent Zero will catch fire get the Wizards back in the hunt but won't have enough to get them into the elite in the East. All in all the Wizards will end up being better than last year's version but the improvement in the conference keeps the Wizards will keep that improvement from paying dividends in the win-loss column.
3. Miami Heat
Ben Go, Thank You Isiah
[Editor's note: This was written pre-Ricky Davis/Antoine Walker trade.]
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Possibly go .500 and sneak into the 8th spot. (The improved Orlando and Charlotte squads will vie for the Southeast.) But barring a simply remarkable performance by Wade, they'll be bounced in the first round.
Reasoning for above: This team is old (and its skin may be cold). Thanks to Shaq and Antoine Walker, their cap situation is a total wreck. And their lone youngster besides Wade and Haslem is Dorrell Wright, who hasn't looked good in the preseason, despite the fact that the starting SF job was his to lose. (He appears to have lost it, to Walker, no less.) Ah well, we'll always have 2006.
4. Charlotte Bobcats
Brett, Queen City Hoops
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Win more games than last year...but not enough for it to matter. 37 wins sounds about right. Oh, and the Bobcats continue to get snubbed at the mid-season gala. And Rufus (the mascot) gets arrested for running a prostitution ring.
Reasoning for above: The team should be better than last year, having added another high quality player, Jason Richardson, to the mix. That brings the total to...4, but with 1 of them out for the year, Sean May. The rest of the pieces are ok, but when you consider that Okafor and Wallace are both injury risks, and the team's depth is still a bit shallow (I'm really enjoying the competition by 2 second rounders for the starting center position), this team is not quite ready to make a major jump. Crash and Emeka will continue to put up solid numbers that border on All-Star worthy, but come up a bit short yet again. As for Rufus? Well, have you seen him? It is just a matter of time.
[Editor's note: Plissken at the Buzzer also has some thoughts on Rufus. Not all of them good.]
[Editor's note: Plissken at the Buzzer also has some thoughts on Rufus. Not all of them good.]
5. Atlanta Hawks
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: They’ll hit the thirty-win mark sometime in early spring and throw a rod. They’ll end up with 35 or so wins and get eliminated from the playoffs with a couple weeks left in the season. Again.
Reasoning: They’re still a young team, and Mike Woodson hasn’t yet proven to me that he can keep momentum going for an entire season. Plus, the West Virginia-family-reunion that is the Hawks’ knotted ownership situation means they can’t count on dealing for some stretch-run talent. Best-case scenario is above; worst-case is everybody gives up on the team and starts going for individual stats—which would make them fit in perfectly with the 2007 Falcons.
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: They’ll hit the thirty-win mark sometime in early spring and throw a rod. They’ll end up with 35 or so wins and get eliminated from the playoffs with a couple weeks left in the season. Again.
Reasoning: They’re still a young team, and Mike Woodson hasn’t yet proven to me that he can keep momentum going for an entire season. Plus, the West Virginia-family-reunion that is the Hawks’ knotted ownership situation means they can’t count on dealing for some stretch-run talent. Best-case scenario is above; worst-case is everybody gives up on the team and starts going for individual stats—which would make them fit in perfectly with the 2007 Falcons.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Bullets Forever, Charlotte Bobcats, Miami Heat, NBA preview, Orlando Magic, Queen City Hoops, Right Down Peachtree, Thank You Isiah, The Howeva Files, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 12:22,
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Wishful thinking: NBA Southeast Division preview
If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, take a spin with stars like Gil, Dwyane, and Dwight.
1. Miami Heat
Ben Go, Thank You Isiah
[Editor's note: This was written pre-Ricky Davis/Antoine Walker trade.]
What they need to do to make me happy: Win 50 and the Southeast, Shaq actually plays 72 games or so, Jason Williams plays 75 games, Wade returns by the end of November, wins the MVP. Make the Eastern Finals, where they lose to Chicago. (Remember, I'm a Bulls fan now.)
Reasoning: Stuck with Shaq for 3 more years at $20 mil per, the goal has got to be to win everything now. As for Wade winning the MVP, if he's healthy (a big if), he's capable.
2. Washington Wizards
JakeTheSnake, Bullets Forever
What they need to do to make me happy: I'd like to see the Wizards get into the second round first and foremost, while you don't need a certain record to get to that level (see: Golden State Warriors) I'd like to see the Wizards get at least 47 wins. Anything above that is an added bonus in my book. This effort will be led in part by Andray Blatche who will take home M.I.P. honors this season (you heard it here first!).
Reasoning: The Wizards can't continue to stay on the verge of being an elite team, this has to be the make or break year for this team. While I'll still take languishing as a also-ran in the playoffs over consistently being an out and out terrible team, I would much rather root for a winner.
3. Charlotte Bobcats
Brett, Queen City Hoops
What they need to do to make me happy: Win 40 games...or 41...or 39 - whatever winds up being the minimum needed to make the playoffs. Losing in the first round is perfectly acceptable, but winning a game at home would be nice. Additionally, seeing a Bobcat make the All-Star game would bring a smile to my face. Make it two, with Gerald Wallace on the team, and Emeka Okafor making it as Shaq's injury replacement.
Reasoning: At this point, 4 years into Charlotte's second shot at NBA basketball, the natives are getting restless: We're ready for playoff basketball to come back to the city, as the Hornets had gotten us quite used to seeing some playoff games every spring. For the city to really embrace the new franchise, the team needs to start winning a bit more, and making the playoffs would be a great start. As far as the All-Star game is concerned, it is just time for Emeka and Gerald to be recognized as the outstanding young players they are (and it would bring more credibility to the team to have our best players acknowledged on such a stage).
4. Orlando Magic (Formerly The Orlando Tragic)
Black and Blue Jor, The Howeva Files
What they need to do to make me happy: To be honest, unlike most of the shitstorms that are in the NBA the Magic actually have high expectations this season. Anything less than the 2nd round playoffs will have all 4 of the total Orlando Magic fans in a huff. If they don't win at least 40 games and make the playoffs, it's time to burn Darko Milicic for witchcraft.
Reasoning: The Magic spent a loooooooot of money this offseason, including robbing banks and actioning off illigitemate children of Patrick Ewing to sign Rashard Lewis. They also have been waiting a while to see what the deal is with Jameer Nelson and if they have more than a drunk white poet in JJ Redick.
5. Atlanta Hawks
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree
What they need to do to make me happy: Just show up to play every night…and don’t look up in the stands. The Hawks have the talent to make a little noise in the East, but that noise won’t be coming from the desolate Philips Arena seats. Best hope? 40-42, sneaking into the playoffs only to get waxed by the Boston Trifecta.
Reasoning: Joe Johnson’s a top-20 player, Josh Smith is a singular talent, and Al Horford and Acie Law should be in the running for All-Rookie First Team. This team could be a lot of fun to watch, and if the Hawks brass has any clue, they’ll cut them loose and turn them into Phoenix East.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Bullets Forever, Charlotte Bobcats, Miami Heat, NBA preview, Orlando Magic, Queen City Hoops, Right Down Peachtree, Thank You Isiah, The Howeva Files, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 09:30,
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