Getting real: NBA Southeast Division preview
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, take a spin with stars like Gil, Dwyane, and Dwight.
1. Orlando Magic (Formerly The Orlando Tragic)
Black and Blue Jor, The Howeva Files
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: I forsee good things, like winning the Southeast Conference with a 48-34 record. Yes, really.
Reasoning for above: The Magic did something unheard of in their crappy non-existent history: they actually retained a superstar. Not only did they resign Dwight Howard, they somehow managed to pry another star in Rashard Lewis from the Sonics and retained all of their other key players. Yes, Darko and Grant Hill, I said KEY players...not a chronically injured sub and a backup power forward. Couple that with a possible emergence of Jameer Nelson and you have the makings of a very solid team. By solid, I mean they are still something the Western Conference wipes their asses with, but solid nonetheless.
2. Washington Wizards
JakeTheSnake, Bullets Forever
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Struggle out of the gates but then pick up steam, play marginally better defense and end up playing just above .500 ball for the season putting them somewhere between 4th and 8th in the conference.
Reasoning: If the preseason has been any indication (which it probably hasn't) Gilbert is still trying to get into a rhythm and the team will have to feel things out while adjusting to not having Etan Thomas' presence inside. After struggling throughout November and into December, Agent Zero will catch fire get the Wizards back in the hunt but won't have enough to get them into the elite in the East. All in all the Wizards will end up being better than last year's version but the improvement in the conference keeps the Wizards will keep that improvement from paying dividends in the win-loss column.
3. Miami Heat
Ben Go, Thank You Isiah
[Editor's note: This was written pre-Ricky Davis/Antoine Walker trade.]
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Possibly go .500 and sneak into the 8th spot. (The improved Orlando and Charlotte squads will vie for the Southeast.) But barring a simply remarkable performance by Wade, they'll be bounced in the first round.
Reasoning for above: This team is old (and its skin may be cold). Thanks to Shaq and Antoine Walker, their cap situation is a total wreck. And their lone youngster besides Wade and Haslem is Dorrell Wright, who hasn't looked good in the preseason, despite the fact that the starting SF job was his to lose. (He appears to have lost it, to Walker, no less.) Ah well, we'll always have 2006.
4. Charlotte Bobcats
Brett, Queen City Hoops
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: Win more games than last year...but not enough for it to matter. 37 wins sounds about right. Oh, and the Bobcats continue to get snubbed at the mid-season gala. And Rufus (the mascot) gets arrested for running a prostitution ring.
Reasoning for above: The team should be better than last year, having added another high quality player, Jason Richardson, to the mix. That brings the total to...4, but with 1 of them out for the year, Sean May. The rest of the pieces are ok, but when you consider that Okafor and Wallace are both injury risks, and the team's depth is still a bit shallow (I'm really enjoying the competition by 2 second rounders for the starting center position), this team is not quite ready to make a major jump. Crash and Emeka will continue to put up solid numbers that border on All-Star worthy, but come up a bit short yet again. As for Rufus? Well, have you seen him? It is just a matter of time.
[Editor's note: Plissken at the Buzzer also has some thoughts on Rufus. Not all of them good.]
[Editor's note: Plissken at the Buzzer also has some thoughts on Rufus. Not all of them good.]
5. Atlanta Hawks
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: They’ll hit the thirty-win mark sometime in early spring and throw a rod. They’ll end up with 35 or so wins and get eliminated from the playoffs with a couple weeks left in the season. Again.
Reasoning: They’re still a young team, and Mike Woodson hasn’t yet proven to me that he can keep momentum going for an entire season. Plus, the West Virginia-family-reunion that is the Hawks’ knotted ownership situation means they can’t count on dealing for some stretch-run talent. Best-case scenario is above; worst-case is everybody gives up on the team and starts going for individual stats—which would make them fit in perfectly with the 2007 Falcons.
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree
Forget what they need to do; here's what they will do: They’ll hit the thirty-win mark sometime in early spring and throw a rod. They’ll end up with 35 or so wins and get eliminated from the playoffs with a couple weeks left in the season. Again.
Reasoning: They’re still a young team, and Mike Woodson hasn’t yet proven to me that he can keep momentum going for an entire season. Plus, the West Virginia-family-reunion that is the Hawks’ knotted ownership situation means they can’t count on dealing for some stretch-run talent. Best-case scenario is above; worst-case is everybody gives up on the team and starts going for individual stats—which would make them fit in perfectly with the 2007 Falcons.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Bullets Forever, Charlotte Bobcats, Miami Heat, NBA preview, Orlando Magic, Queen City Hoops, Right Down Peachtree, Thank You Isiah, The Howeva Files, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 12:22,
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Wishful thinking: NBA Southeast Division preview
If you've somehow missed all the NBA previews--or are simply jonesin' for more--top bloggers helped We Rite Goode boil the season down to a few catchy soundbites that can be used to impress at cocktail parties or keggers. After you've read our methodology here, take a spin with stars like Gil, Dwyane, and Dwight.
1. Miami Heat
Ben Go, Thank You Isiah
[Editor's note: This was written pre-Ricky Davis/Antoine Walker trade.]
What they need to do to make me happy: Win 50 and the Southeast, Shaq actually plays 72 games or so, Jason Williams plays 75 games, Wade returns by the end of November, wins the MVP. Make the Eastern Finals, where they lose to Chicago. (Remember, I'm a Bulls fan now.)
Reasoning: Stuck with Shaq for 3 more years at $20 mil per, the goal has got to be to win everything now. As for Wade winning the MVP, if he's healthy (a big if), he's capable.
2. Washington Wizards
JakeTheSnake, Bullets Forever
What they need to do to make me happy: I'd like to see the Wizards get into the second round first and foremost, while you don't need a certain record to get to that level (see: Golden State Warriors) I'd like to see the Wizards get at least 47 wins. Anything above that is an added bonus in my book. This effort will be led in part by Andray Blatche who will take home M.I.P. honors this season (you heard it here first!).
Reasoning: The Wizards can't continue to stay on the verge of being an elite team, this has to be the make or break year for this team. While I'll still take languishing as a also-ran in the playoffs over consistently being an out and out terrible team, I would much rather root for a winner.
3. Charlotte Bobcats
Brett, Queen City Hoops
What they need to do to make me happy: Win 40 games...or 41...or 39 - whatever winds up being the minimum needed to make the playoffs. Losing in the first round is perfectly acceptable, but winning a game at home would be nice. Additionally, seeing a Bobcat make the All-Star game would bring a smile to my face. Make it two, with Gerald Wallace on the team, and Emeka Okafor making it as Shaq's injury replacement.
Reasoning: At this point, 4 years into Charlotte's second shot at NBA basketball, the natives are getting restless: We're ready for playoff basketball to come back to the city, as the Hornets had gotten us quite used to seeing some playoff games every spring. For the city to really embrace the new franchise, the team needs to start winning a bit more, and making the playoffs would be a great start. As far as the All-Star game is concerned, it is just time for Emeka and Gerald to be recognized as the outstanding young players they are (and it would bring more credibility to the team to have our best players acknowledged on such a stage).
4. Orlando Magic (Formerly The Orlando Tragic)
Black and Blue Jor, The Howeva Files
What they need to do to make me happy: To be honest, unlike most of the shitstorms that are in the NBA the Magic actually have high expectations this season. Anything less than the 2nd round playoffs will have all 4 of the total Orlando Magic fans in a huff. If they don't win at least 40 games and make the playoffs, it's time to burn Darko Milicic for witchcraft.
Reasoning: The Magic spent a loooooooot of money this offseason, including robbing banks and actioning off illigitemate children of Patrick Ewing to sign Rashard Lewis. They also have been waiting a while to see what the deal is with Jameer Nelson and if they have more than a drunk white poet in JJ Redick.
5. Atlanta Hawks
Jay Busbee, Right Down Peachtree
What they need to do to make me happy: Just show up to play every night…and don’t look up in the stands. The Hawks have the talent to make a little noise in the East, but that noise won’t be coming from the desolate Philips Arena seats. Best hope? 40-42, sneaking into the playoffs only to get waxed by the Boston Trifecta.
Reasoning: Joe Johnson’s a top-20 player, Josh Smith is a singular talent, and Al Horford and Acie Law should be in the running for All-Rookie First Team. This team could be a lot of fun to watch, and if the Hawks brass has any clue, they’ll cut them loose and turn them into Phoenix East.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Bullets Forever, Charlotte Bobcats, Miami Heat, NBA preview, Orlando Magic, Queen City Hoops, Right Down Peachtree, Thank You Isiah, The Howeva Files, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 09:30,
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Time to punch the numbers
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
John Hollinger's revised ratings are out and the bloggers are talking. Happy: Fans of the Rockets (projected NBA champions), Bulls (Eastern Conference champs), and Kelenna "Sambuca" Azubuike (as Hollinger projects Marco Bellinelli to be so bad, the Warriors will have no choice but to play him).Not so thrilled: Wizards fans, who are trying to understand how a team with
While there are worse concerns for the Wiz these days than a columnist's predictions...still, yikes. Doctor Dribbles may publicly trust in PER, but most of the We Rite Goode riters are closet Hollinger-heads; for our purposes, his words carry scary weight. The estimable Pradamaster is over at Bullets Forever furiously debunking Hollinger's rationale, which includes allegations that Gilbert Arenas's quickness-dependent game will slide and Antonio Daniels is due for a fall. Not entirely idle speculation, but Prada's click-worthy argument strongly rebuts these concerns.
But one Hollinger point--that Antawn Jamison is slipping--is an observation that we'd also long, secretly feared.
True, Jamison's PER of 18.4 was his highest in three seasons in DC; he certainly seemed to fill it up down the stretch and in the playoffs. But, we worried, might his performance have been skewed by an end-of-season flurry, with Arenas and Caron Butler sidelined? And if the Big Three stay healthy this coming year, and Arenas and Butler continue to dominate possessions, doesn't it seem likely that Jamison's numbers will take a dip?
Granted, this may be an effort to rationalize Hollinger's prediction (it's horrible--in some twisted way, we'd prefer Jamison to actually be declining than to have Hollinger be wrong), but curiosity got the better of us and prompted some game log investigation and back-of-the-envelope math courtesy of Excel. We've saved our very basic spreadsheet here, for those who are curious.
The findings:
* In 70 games, Jamison's season averages were 19.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 45% FG shooting, and 16.3 FGA per game. (Granted, it didn't take Excel to uncover this data, just ESPN.com. But a crucial piece of baseline info.)
* Jamison actually played 14 games without Butler and/or Arenas; 15, counting the game where Butler played 13 minutes and took 2 shots, before removing himself because of stiffness; and 16, where Gilbert played two minutes before hurting his knee. So, operatively, 16 games in the "not-so-Big-Three" (NSBT) games--that's nearly 23% of his 70-game season. Importantly, Jamison averaged 37.9 mpg in those games versus 38.0 mpg on the season, which we can call that a draw.
* In the NSBT games, Jamison averaged 22.75 ppg, 8.37 rpg, and 18.3 FGA per game.
* Accounting for the NSBT games, Jamison's averages in the 54 games with Butler and Arenas fall to 18.92 ppg, 7.83 rpg, and 15.9 FGA per game. A huge difference? No. But demonstrable? Yes, and probably enough to measurably effect PER, which rewards for field goal attempts, in addition to other performance gains in the same MPG.
* An important caveat: Jamison's shooting percentage shrunk when other teams increasingly keyed on him, shooting only 40.9% in the NSBT games, compared to 46.4% in those 54 other games. And who knows--that FG% decline may be enough of a counter to the other performance gains. (Honestly, we don't know, and will defer to Ty Keenan and Carter Blanchard to load all of this data into the PER formula.)
* However, Wizards fans may remember a six-game stretch where the Big Three all played, but Butler was burdened by the knee stiffness that had kept him out in late February and would force him back out in March--as a result, although Butler was on the court and drawing defensive attention, he was much less active in the offense. In those six games (arguably, a tiny sample size), Jamison averaged 21.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and shot 48.6%.
So what does this all mean? That Jamison's PER was affected by his performance in Butler- and Arenas-less games? (Maybe.) But is this a significant observation, since every NBA player will have games where he carries more of the burden, as teammates are out with injuries/clashing with coaches/hiding from process servers? (Probably not.)
Getting to Hollinger's point, does it mean Jamison's declining? If the crack WRG basketball team had to read into the numbers, we say no; more likely, the data indicates that Antawn can still be a reliable scoring option, but at this point in his career, directing too much of the offense through him comes at a cost to his efficiency. But can Jamison step up his game in context of the Big Three? Note that when Arenas and an injured Butler were on the court and drawing the defense, Jamison may have enjoyed one of his more efficient and effective stretches of the season. His days of carrying a team are over (if they ever existed), but Jamison remains a key third wheel.
(And, in the most important finding, does it mean that we learned how to upload a spreadsheet to the Internet? Oh yes. And you can too.)
Labels: Antawn Jamison, Bullets Forever, Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, John Hollinger, NBA, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 21:09,
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