Don't hate the player: The grate of fame
Friday, December 14, 2007
Where we were.
Where we are.
- 20 Second Timeout: Is Gilbert Arenas the Most Overrated All-Star in the NBA?
- Passion and Pride: Arenas is a better blogger than baller, calls out Iguodala
- Charley Rosen: Wizards getting by without Arenas and his "belligerent e-mails" (HT: JakeTheSnake)
But easy doesn't always equal accurate.
Gilbert had a Cinderella season on- and off-court in 2006-07, even if the ending was more fractured than fairy tale. Then, once his hype got a bit ahead of his 'comp this year, Gil was shelved before he could yet again let his play speak for himself. And do you doubt that he would have stepped up? Take a lesson.
So now we're into a favorite pastime: Making yesterday's hero into today's tackling dummy.
The Wiz are more than Arenas, of course, and we DC-ites all enjoy the new look, but like Dwyer/Truthaboutit/HSCS point out, let's not pretend this team into a contender yet. Especially without Arenas. Over the past 15 years, nobody--not Webber nor Howard, not Butler nor Jamison, and certainly not Err Jordan--has been as dynamic or clutch in a Washington uni as Gil.
Not even Ledell. It may sound like blasphemy, but even if Arenas is half the man of A-Train, he's three times the player.
20 Second's Friedman may contend that at 128-118 from 2004-2007, the Arenas-led Wizards have been "mediocre for quite some time"--but behind Gil, the Clippers of the East have finally shaken off the cellar! Dave, you realize this is Washington's best three-year stretch in 30 years? Antawn and Caron were strong additions, but Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, they're not.
Injuries sometimes fast-track certain players to the spotlight. Tracy McGrady became a star at the expense of Grant Hill's ankle. Kurt Warner only started because Trent Green went down in the preseason. But the sidekick getting to (short-term) star is a more familiar theme. Last week, Manu's 37-point specials pushed the Duncan-less Spurs over the Mavs and Jazz. Last year, one A.I. stepped up for another in Philly. Even Scottie was MVP-caliber when MJ left for...well, we've collectively forgotten that chapter. Yet who thinks Iggy > Iverson, or would take Pippen over Jordan?
So temporary vanishing acts and surprise star turns are essential parts of the sports fabric; fans aren't required to hate on what's gone missing, just better appreciate what we've got. And in the Wizards' case, maybe it was more than we knew.
Labels: Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Ledell Eackles, NBA, Washington Wizards
posted by Anonymous @ 12:37,
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In-depth analysis: Why buy a bench, anyway?
Saturday, December 1, 2007
We're a month into the season, and the We Rite Goode crew want to
Next up: Why haven't the Wizards filled out their roster?
In a slightly unorthodox move, the Wizards decided to start the season with only 13 players, rather than the conventional 15. Here's what happened next.
- Etan Thomas: Lost during training camp.
- Gilbert Arenas: Back, then probably lost for the year.
- Oleksiy Pecherov: Who?
As if by black magic, one Wizard after another has fallen, leaving the team with just 10 healthy players. But despite limited guard depth and newly available Mike Wilks a potential backup point, word comes from the Post's Ivan Carter: Washington won't sign anyone for now, seeking to stay under the luxury tax. This doesn't sit well with readers, who assume that failing to sign players to open roster slots signals some sort of white-flag waving. Asks one commenter, "how do you win by cutting corners?"Yet as Pradamaster at Bullets Forever succinctly explains luxury tax issues, the Wizards may need more bodies but "it makes sense...[not] going over for a guy who will basically amount to being a 12th man." Since Washington's barely under the tax, signing a veteran to the minimum likely kicks in the dollar-for-dollar tax and forces the team to forfeit potential luxury-tax revenue.
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Let's set aside salary math for a second, though, to explore the underlying assumption: Do the Wizards actually need more players? Most NBA teams only have eight or nine guys in the rotation, and with every 'Zard in action save Dominic McGuire, Washington's no exception. So if the team--as presently constituted--can still win games, what's the need to sign Wilks? Even more broadly, if teams know that such pick-ups tend to sit, why bother signing marginal players in the first place?
Reason #1--To protect against injuries: Perhaps the best argument for having quality backups, as demonstrated by the Wizards' Antonio Daniels. However, unless a team's starters and key subs tend to be injury-prone, it's fiscally irrational to invest too deeply beyond the 9th player in the rotation; end-of-the-bench talent is largely interchangeable from players available for the minimum or called up from the D-League. In fact, acquiring too much depth can hinder performance as much as help--especially if it comes at the expense of a more successful stars-and-supporting-cast strategy.
Take the late 1990s-early 2000s Portland Trailblazers, as several very good-but-not-great teams relied on too many very good-but-not-great players, creating playing time and chemistry concerns. For example, the 2001-2002 Trailblazers featured the league's second-highest payroll at $90+ million and seven regulars who posted PERs of 14.7 or better (with John Hollinger defining a 15.0 PER as "a pretty good player"); in contrast, the past two NBA champions--the 2007 Spurs and the 2006 Heat--each featured just four regulars at or above 14.7 PER. Although the Blazers overcame rotation problems and a slow start to win 49 games, the Lakers ultimately swept them in the first round.
How this applies to the Wizards: Some are lobbying to sign Wilks now in advance of any further guard injuries, with Daniels the team's only remaining point. However, while Wilks would be a slight upgrade over Roger Mason, the player with whom he'd compete for minutes and who's having an awful year, he's not significantly better than Mason, who already knows the system, nor any player the Wizards could call up from the D-League should Daniels actually get injured. Basically, there's no reason to make a mediocre move unless someone else goes down.
Moreover, the Wizards' lack of depth is somewhat ameliorated by the team's Princeton offense, which diminishes the point guard's role in favor of cutting and motion. From a decade-old Sports Illustrated:
"Today you always hear, 'What are you, a one or a two?'" says [former Princeton Coach Butch] van Breda Kolff, one meaning a point guard, two being a shooting guard. "The question should be, 'Can you play?'" Except for center, every Princeton part is interchangeable.With DeShawn Stevenson and Nick Young as big guards who can initiate the Princeton attack, having another mediocre point guard matters less than waiting for the best available contributor to hit the market. If the team needs anything, it might be a big man who can control the ball at the high post; perhaps Pecherov fills that bill when he returns.
Reason #2--To provide quality substitutes: Fans already know that playoff-caliber teams need substitutes who, upon entering a game, either maintain the team's high level of play or provide a missing spark. However, less understood is that who's available to play is far, far more important than how many are ready to go. Beyond the three or four players in the rotation, a typical bench only is expected to offer extra fouls, a few specialists, and perhaps an X-factor to force adjustments. Even fewer qualifications are needed at the far end-of-the-bench; Jack McCallum's great book on the Phoenix Suns, :07 Seconds or Less, details their coaches' search for the "perfect 12th man"--a spirited player who accepted that he'd be a glorified spectator. As a result, teams can readily overcome the loss of a valued reserve, but losing a starter can create a concerning domino effect, as affected bench players move into new, unfamiliar roles.
How this applies to the Wizards: Without Arenas, Daniels became the starting point guard, and everyone on the bench moves up in the rotation (the 7th man becomes the 6th man, the 8th man becomes the 7th man, and so on). Without Etan Thomas, Brendan Haywood became center de facto and Andray Blatche the first big off the bench, moving the rest of the rotation forward again. Thomas's absence isn't ideal, but it's enabled Blatche's emergence; drawing less attention is how the three bench guards have improved since Gilbert's injury, as Daniels plays starter's minutes and rookie Nick Young becomes an offensive catalyst.
Unfortunately, Mason's contract is guaranteed, so while his performance remains less-than-stellar, he's not going anywhere. Still, Wilks sports a career PER of 10.2 so Wiz fans shouldn't rush to proclaim him the backcourt's savior.
Reason #3--To fill out a practice: At minimum, coaches expect to have enough players for five-on-five, in order to conduct walk-throughs and execute drills. Moreover, teams that have young, developing players can use practice time to hone non-regulars' skill sets, such as the Warriors bringing in DJ Mbenga to give Brandon Wright and Patrick O'Bryant a practice big man.
However, practices matter far less in the NBA than they do in college basketball. Barring injury or poor performance, NBA coaches frequently settle on their rotations early in the season; in college basketball, which has far fewer games to begin with, the frequent practices play a key role in establishing a team's identity. Moreover, a rapidly developing college player can start wowing during practice and earn minutes as the season goes along; in the NBA, a Jermaine O'Neal or Michael Redd often sit until they move teams or a spot opens up.
How this applies to the Wizards: It's true that with ten players, the Wizards can barely field a five-on-five practice. Yet until they can't, there's no reason to worry--if anything, it ensures that each player is more necessary during practice, fostering additional engagement--and the team already has a fairly veteran core with experience playing together. And to take an Allen Iverson approach, maybe less is more; not only does Eddie Jordan run an extremely light practice, it tends to cost the players who do show up.
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Even if it makes rational sense, having such a lean roster is still a bit unsettling; this is a basketball team, not a factory floor. And although Blatche is playing at a much higher level, one injury to Caron Butler and the Wizards basically revert to the same Arenas-less team that collapsed at the end of last season. If you're a Wizards fan--believing in the team's goal to push ever-deeper into the playoffs--you can't help but envy how Dallas owner Mark Cuban's willingness to pay whatever price helped turn the equally woeful Mavericks into championship contenders.
Yet.
Unless there's another injury, there's no compelling reason to add a player of Wilks' marginal value. And until last night's stinker versus the 76ers, the team was playing with chemistry and spark missing since March of last year; each guy on the active roster knows that he needs to be ready to go. So long as everyone stays healthy, this squad remains intriguing to watch--as any team that plays its starters during garbage time would be--and by having salary flexibility, the Wizards may even derive a competitive advantage out of their miserly ways.Still, any favorable forecast for the team requires continued good health...and since the team's already lost Gilbert, Etan, and that big Oily guy, how much worse can it get? Let's hope the Curse of Le Boulez doesnt feel obligated to provide an answer.
Labels: Etan Thomas, Gilbert Arenas, Oleksiy Pecherov, Questions, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 06:52,
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Time to punch the numbers
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
John Hollinger's revised ratings are out and the bloggers are talking. Happy: Fans of the Rockets (projected NBA champions), Bulls (Eastern Conference champs), and Kelenna "Sambuca" Azubuike (as Hollinger projects Marco Bellinelli to be so bad, the Warriors will have no choice but to play him).Not so thrilled: Wizards fans, who are trying to understand how a team with
While there are worse concerns for the Wiz these days than a columnist's predictions...still, yikes. Doctor Dribbles may publicly trust in PER, but most of the We Rite Goode riters are closet Hollinger-heads; for our purposes, his words carry scary weight. The estimable Pradamaster is over at Bullets Forever furiously debunking Hollinger's rationale, which includes allegations that Gilbert Arenas's quickness-dependent game will slide and Antonio Daniels is due for a fall. Not entirely idle speculation, but Prada's click-worthy argument strongly rebuts these concerns.
But one Hollinger point--that Antawn Jamison is slipping--is an observation that we'd also long, secretly feared.
True, Jamison's PER of 18.4 was his highest in three seasons in DC; he certainly seemed to fill it up down the stretch and in the playoffs. But, we worried, might his performance have been skewed by an end-of-season flurry, with Arenas and Caron Butler sidelined? And if the Big Three stay healthy this coming year, and Arenas and Butler continue to dominate possessions, doesn't it seem likely that Jamison's numbers will take a dip?
Granted, this may be an effort to rationalize Hollinger's prediction (it's horrible--in some twisted way, we'd prefer Jamison to actually be declining than to have Hollinger be wrong), but curiosity got the better of us and prompted some game log investigation and back-of-the-envelope math courtesy of Excel. We've saved our very basic spreadsheet here, for those who are curious.
The findings:
* In 70 games, Jamison's season averages were 19.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 45% FG shooting, and 16.3 FGA per game. (Granted, it didn't take Excel to uncover this data, just ESPN.com. But a crucial piece of baseline info.)
* Jamison actually played 14 games without Butler and/or Arenas; 15, counting the game where Butler played 13 minutes and took 2 shots, before removing himself because of stiffness; and 16, where Gilbert played two minutes before hurting his knee. So, operatively, 16 games in the "not-so-Big-Three" (NSBT) games--that's nearly 23% of his 70-game season. Importantly, Jamison averaged 37.9 mpg in those games versus 38.0 mpg on the season, which we can call that a draw.
* In the NSBT games, Jamison averaged 22.75 ppg, 8.37 rpg, and 18.3 FGA per game.
* Accounting for the NSBT games, Jamison's averages in the 54 games with Butler and Arenas fall to 18.92 ppg, 7.83 rpg, and 15.9 FGA per game. A huge difference? No. But demonstrable? Yes, and probably enough to measurably effect PER, which rewards for field goal attempts, in addition to other performance gains in the same MPG.
* An important caveat: Jamison's shooting percentage shrunk when other teams increasingly keyed on him, shooting only 40.9% in the NSBT games, compared to 46.4% in those 54 other games. And who knows--that FG% decline may be enough of a counter to the other performance gains. (Honestly, we don't know, and will defer to Ty Keenan and Carter Blanchard to load all of this data into the PER formula.)
* However, Wizards fans may remember a six-game stretch where the Big Three all played, but Butler was burdened by the knee stiffness that had kept him out in late February and would force him back out in March--as a result, although Butler was on the court and drawing defensive attention, he was much less active in the offense. In those six games (arguably, a tiny sample size), Jamison averaged 21.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, and shot 48.6%.
So what does this all mean? That Jamison's PER was affected by his performance in Butler- and Arenas-less games? (Maybe.) But is this a significant observation, since every NBA player will have games where he carries more of the burden, as teammates are out with injuries/clashing with coaches/hiding from process servers? (Probably not.)
Getting to Hollinger's point, does it mean Jamison's declining? If the crack WRG basketball team had to read into the numbers, we say no; more likely, the data indicates that Antawn can still be a reliable scoring option, but at this point in his career, directing too much of the offense through him comes at a cost to his efficiency. But can Jamison step up his game in context of the Big Three? Note that when Arenas and an injured Butler were on the court and drawing the defense, Jamison may have enjoyed one of his more efficient and effective stretches of the season. His days of carrying a team are over (if they ever existed), but Jamison remains a key third wheel.
(And, in the most important finding, does it mean that we learned how to upload a spreadsheet to the Internet? Oh yes. And you can too.)
Labels: Antawn Jamison, Bullets Forever, Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, John Hollinger, NBA, Washington Wizards
posted by Crucifictorious @ 21:09,
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Man wants world to know he has giant box of porn
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
We're a nation of packrats, especially when it comes to sports stuff. Nearly every fan's collected something, whether it was the free Cal Ripken posters in the newspaper or classic Sports Illustrated covers.
But even as tiny tots, we could never stomach our collection playing second fiddle to anyone else’s, let alone not being unique. Who wanted to have the exact same Starting Lineup figures as dorky neighbor Joey? Not us. It’s a habit that has followed us over the years.
Take 1989, when we heard about Jimmy Chitwood's massive baseball card collection and realized he’d basically cornered the market. Frustrated, we stuck to finding every single Garbage Pail Kid instead--and trust us, Adam Bomb and Valerie Vomit age a bit less impressively than, say, a Junior Griffey rookie card.
Or in 2005, when we learned about one Redskins super-fan's insane collection of team paraphernalia, which had become "his whole life." Not that we were going to collect Redskins stuff anyway--we hate Dan Snyder and all he stands for--but the news further served to keep us away.
And in 2006, when we read about Arenas getting into the jersey-collecting business and promptly threw up our hands. What next? We gracefully ended our flirtation with the habit and returned the Unseld throwback jersey, price tag uncut.
(About the only time we ever out-collected our peers was in third grade, as no one else in class could represent the entire American League entirely via ice cream mini-helmets. Not coincidentally, we were tubby little bastards).
But, as we learned from the news wire yesterday, there’s one collection we’ll never be able to compete with. Honestly, we're retiring from the game right now. Just a truly exceptional feat of collecting that many young, sports-loving males can relate to. Only one problem: The police don’t want to return the guy’s giant stash of porn.
SAN RAFAEL, Calif.-- A man recently jailed for secretly videotaping a woman and a teenage girl has sued a police department for the return of his massive porn collection taken during the investigation. Dennis Saunders, 59, filed suit after the department refused to give back some 500 pornographic movies and 250 magazines his lawyer described as unrelated to the peeping case.
The Smoking Gun has done the world a tremendous service by posting snippets from the 40-page police report, which the cops had to love filing. Among Mr. Saunders’ collection, we found classics like "NYPD Nude," "Muffmania" (‘01 through ‘04), and the especially naughty "Maxell Video Head Cleaner."
(Yes, we feel dirty just writing this.)
Strictly speaking, we couldn’t find much in Mr. Saunders’ story that was sports-related, although we have some concerns that “Northwest Amateurs” shares too much information about Greg Oden, Josh McRoberts, and rest of the young Portland Trailblazers. And we’re reasonably confident that Fred Smoot and Daunte Culpepper were guest speakers at Muffmania ’04.
Labels: giant stash of porn, Gilbert Arenas, Gregg Jefferies, Washington Redskins
posted by Crucifictorious @ 17:37,
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Somewhere between a Kid's Choice and an ESPY
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
In the department of random, dated news: The Stephon Marbury interview.
The highlights, if you will:
"We always wanna win the trophy. We call that the shiney stuff...I shoot to win because I shoot to win. And that's it."
"My sister Stephanie, that's my namesake, that's what she is to me...that's my daughter name...she been praying for this forever and it finally happened yesterday when I kissed her, I felt her body and I felt her soul. I was delighted to be kissing her. I couldn't even cry because I knew they were gonna be happy tears so I was able to control them. You know, you really cry when you really bad stuff."
"Like this! Do it with me baby!" [While dancing over Mets highlights]
Sure, the video's circulated for a month, but hey, if the very classy Steve Weinman of Taking it to the Rack can break it down via a "live journal" just last week, we're comfortable talking about it here. Besides, the video's back in the news, sort of. But we'll get to that.
Now, we all got a kick out of Steph's antics. But Taking it to the Rack's Steve verges on anathema when discussing this new, crazy Marbury; he wonders aloud that "maybe Steph isn’t all that much different than a far less skilled Gilbert Arenas."
And to that, I say:
Preposterous. Look, not only is Arenas is twice the player that Fallen Starbury is, but when it comes to being a goofball, he's the au natural Aaron to Steph's boosted Bonds. Arenas has a proven track record all the way back to college; at Arizona, he was stealing light bulbs and setting off fire alarms to get a laugh.
Meanwhile, Steph's...not a prankster. The only thing he stole at Tech was the boosters' money, if they wanted him to stick around for more than a year.
Sure, give Marbury some dap for his $14 sneakers, his charity work, his up-from-Coney Island life story. And yes, we love his new habit of giving interviews under the influence. However, when he's not chemically enhanced, Marbury normally is a surly dude. Arenas=spontaneously hilarious. As I wrote to Steve, the two guys hardly belong in the same sentence.
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But another, notable blogger's down with the Marbury interview. Gilbert himself. From his spot on NBA.com today, Agent Zero bestows a coveted honor...well, I'll just let you read it.
Usually I give out awards at the end of the year, but somebody won the “Best Interview of the Century” award this summer. If you guys haven’t seen it, you need to search “Marbury interview” on YouTube. If you don’t think this is the best interview in history, something is mentally wrong with you. It was so good, I watched it 12 times just to make sure that what I was watching was actually real and I wasn’t imagining it.
He’s like, “I’m going to average 10 points, 11-12 dimes, four assists …” And I’m like, “What? Last time I checked, dimes and assists were the same thing.” Then he answers his cell phone in the middle of the interview. And at the end he just starts screaming, “Do it with me now! Do it with me!” I had to rewind it just to make sure it was really Stephon Marbury on there. So, I present Steph with the "Interview of the Century" Hibachi Award!
So, alas, Marbury and Gilbert *are* in the same sentence; Hibachi himself has seen to it. Thus, Steve, I eat my words. And they definitely don't taste as good as whatever Steph's been chewing on.
Labels: Gilbert Arenas, Stephon Marbury, Taking it to the Rack
posted by Anonymous @ 19:25,
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The Hibachi will roast you
Monday, August 6, 2007
It's a scandal that's rocked the Wizards. Folks around basketball are shaking their heads, clucking their tongues.
No, it's not Andray Blatche--please, dude's last week's news (although the financial problems were a revelation).
Front and center now is Gilbert's plagiarism. Man makes a funny shark joke, but all hell breaks loose when word comes that the joke's...stolen!! Somewhere, the Wizznutz sheds a tear.
Now, bloggers have to be careful on this sensitive issue. Certainly, WRG doesn't want to condone the lifting of unattributed material. We don't need a high score on the M Zone Wonderlic test to know it's bad form.
On the other hand...
As Agent Zero points out, we'd never heard of "Ian Edwards" or his shark joke before. And who hasn't stolen a joke, or at least tried to?
But Gilbert doesn't need my feeble defense--Hibachi burns all who would take him down a peg. Patrick McEnroe, you been served.
(Suggestion for ESPN. You know, PTI is filmed in DC--and why get P-Mac to co-host when you could ask our favorite son, the Black President?)
Labels: Andray Blatche, Gilbert Arenas
posted by Anonymous @ 09:41,
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Mark it down: November 2
Thursday, August 2, 2007
So the NBA schedule is out and the Wiz are facing the new-look Celtics in the first Friday night game on ESPN next season.
It'll be the C's first regular-season game, so you know all of America will be tuning in. Well...all NBA fans in America, that is. Who are home on a Friday night. And take November basketball seriously.
Yep...it'll be me, Simmons, and this guy. And who knows, that guy sounds pretty down on the C's-- he might make other plans.
I'm agreed with my co-bloggers--while the Celtics are much improved, it's far too early to start fitting them for rings, let alone Atlantic Division championship t-shirts. The team's depth is totally gutted, their current starting point guard can't make a jumper, and there's no guarantee an aging threesome that's never played together will make it through the season healthy.
So I'd like to think when the 'zards come to town...it'll be a competitive game, at the least.
Of course, the remaining free agents supposedly now are flocking to Boston, Gary Payton couldn't shoot when he was a rookie either, and Garnett and Pierce are generally healthy young men. I could simply be jealous that the Wizards' vaunted big three of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison is now totally overshadowed...by about everyone, it seems. Doesn't highest scoring trio in the land count for something?
Hey, 1.4% of America and I know what's up. Maybe they'll watch the game with me.
Labels: Antawn Jamison, Boston Celtics, Caron Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Washington Wizards
posted by Anonymous @ 20:25,
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Around the Web...
Monday, July 2, 2007
From SLAM: Yao's worked on his selfishness; Sun now works on his slang. I've never been so proud to be an American.From Bugs and Cranks: The first in a series of profiles of online baseball communities. Here's hoping Camden Chat will be considered.
From BallHype: Voting goes on to determine the season's best
From Rumors and Rants: Possible TV and movie roles for Gilbert Arenas. You know, if this basketball thing doesn't work out.
Labels: best dunks, Gilbert Arenas, sun yue, yao ming
posted by Crucifictorious @ 18:21,
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Around the Web...
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
From ESPN.com: The Maestro of Mathmatics, the Professor of PER, John Hollinger finally delivers a system to project college players' NBA success.From Gilbertology: Two more Arenas/Durant commercials that you'll be tired of by Friday, but amused by today.
From The FanHouse: Why interest in Kevin Garnett is going nuclear.
(And From the BasketballJones via WithLeather: Why you shouldn't bat an eye.)
From the Washington Post: The glamorous, glitzy life of the college basketball scrub-turned-Ukranian professional basketball player.
Labels: Around the Web, Gilbert Arenas, it's getting drafty, John Hollinger, Kevin Garnett
posted by Crucifictorious @ 23:38,
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